Why is silver more volatile than gold?

Silver typically exhibits 1.5-2x the daily volatility of gold due to its dual nature as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity. About 50% of annual silver demand comes from industrial applications — electronics, solar panels, medical devices — making it sensitive to manufacturing cycles alongside monetary factors.

How does solar energy affect silver demand?

Each standard solar panel requires approximately 20 grams of silver paste for its conductive layers. With global solar installations growing at double-digit rates, solar demand alone could absorb over 20% of annual silver mine production by 2030, creating a structural supply deficit that supports higher prices.

What indicators matter most for silver trading?

Key silver indicators include the Gold/Silver ratio, industrial PMI data, solar installation forecasts, COMEX COT positioning, the US Dollar Index, and real interest rates. Aurus Insight tracks all these factors across 7 AI models to generate a composite silver score updated in real time.

Silver Market Analysis & AI Predictions

Silver

XAG/USD

$167.94

+$1.51 (+0.91%)

24h High

$168.02

24h Low

$165.80

Open

$166.42

24h Change

+0.91%

7d Change

+18.31%

Market Cap

$9.6T

24h Change

+0.91%

7d Change

+18.31%

30d Change

+57.69%

YTD

+103.62%

24h High

$168.02

24h Low

$165.80

Silver Market Ratios & Industrial Demand

Silver/Gold Ratio

0.0x

Inverse of G/S — higher = silver outperforming

Gold/Silver Ratio

72.3x

>80 = silver undervalued historically

Industrial Demand %

55.30%

Solar + electronics + EV growth

Supply Deficit (Moz)

-176.0x

Structural deficit since 2021

Seasonal Patterns

Average Monthly Return

Current Month vs Historical

Historical Avg

+2.1%

Jul • 20Y average

Current Month

+2.1%

Jul 2026

vs Average

+0.0%

Above historical average

Silver in Jul has averaged +2.1% over the past 20Y.

Annual Performance Heatmap

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2016	+1.7	-0.4	-1.6	+0.5	+0.7	+3	+2.4	-2.4	+4.1	-1.3	+1	-0.6
2017	+4	-1.1	-2.3	+2.8	-0.1	+2.2	+1.7	-0.1	+3.4	-2	+0.3	+1.7
2018	+3.3	-1.8	-0.1	+2	-0.8	+1.5	+4	-0.8	+2.7	-2.7	+2.6	+1
2019	+2.5	-2.6	-0.8	+1.3	-1.5	+3.8	+3.3	-1.5	+2	-0.5	+1.8	+0.2
2020	+1.8	-0.3	-1.5	+0.6	+0.8	+3.1	+2.6	-2.2	+4.2	-1.2	+1.1	-0.5
2021	+4.1	-1	-2.2	+2.9	+0.1	+2.4	+1.8	0	+3.5	-1.9	+0.4	+1.8
2022	+3.4	-1.7	-2.9	+2.2	-0.7	+1.6	+4.1	-0.7	+2.8	-2.6	+2.7	+1.1
2023	+2.7	-2.4	-0.7	+1.4	-1.4	+3.9	+3.4	-1.4	+2.1	-0.3	+2	+0.4
2024	+1.9	-0.2	-1.4	+0.7	-2.1	+3.2	+2.7	-2.1	+4.4	-1	+1.2	-0.4
2025	+4.2	-0.9	-2.1	0	+0.2	+2.5	+2	+0.1	+3.6	-1.8	+0.5	+1.9

Strong decline

Flat

Strong gain

GARCH Volatility Model

Model 3/71ms

Volatility RegimeTURBULENT

Calm 10%

Normal 55%

Turbulent 35%

Crisis 0%

Persistence: 0.97Half-Life: 19.7 daysCurrent: 21.7%Long-run: 13.6%

Volatility History & Forecast

Volatility Term Structure

Expected Daily Range

+2σ

$84.74

+1σ

$83.62

Current

$82.49

-1σ

$81.36

-2σ

$80.24

68% chance within $81.36 - $83.62

95% chance within $80.24 - $84.74

Volatility model · Based on 252 trading days · As of Jul 4, 2026

Technical Analysis

+14

NeutralConfidence: 61%

▲ 7 Buy● 5 Neutral▼ 5 Sell

Support

$82.33

Pivot Point

$82.42

Resistance

$82.53

Category Weights

Moving Averages30%

+68

Momentum30%

-23

Bands & Channels15%

-15

Volume10%

+25

Patterns Detected15%

Analysis Summary

Technical analysis is mixed. Indicators are divided, suggesting caution. Composite score: 14/100, confidence: 61%.

▲ Top Bullish: MA Crossovers, ADX(14), Ichimoku Cloud

▼ Top Bearish: Bollinger Bands, RSI(14), Williams %R(14)

Score: +14/100Confidence: 61%17 indicators analyzed

No Signal Generated

Conditions not met to generate a reliable trading signal

✗Score must be above +40 or below -40|14| = 14≥ 40

✓Confidence must be above 50%61%≥ 50%

✗Indicator alignment must be above 60%41% (7/17)≥ 60%

IndicatorValueSignalScore

MA Crossovers

Above all MAs

Strong Buy

+75

ADX(14)

38.5 (Strong)

Strong Buy

+70

Parabolic SAR

$81.78

Strong Buy

+60

Ichimoku Cloud

Above Cloud

Strong Buy

+65

RSI(14)

77.0

Sell

-50

MACD(12,26,9)

0.18

Buy

+40

Stochastic(14,3)

%K: 92.3 / %D: 93.8

Sell

-40

Williams %R(14)

-6.0

Sell

-50

CCI(20)

156

Sell

-40

ROC(12)

+0.65%

Neutral

Bollinger Bands

%B: 101.3%

Strong Sell

-60

ATR(14)

$0.14 (0.17%)

Neutral

Keltner Squeeze

No Squeeze

Neutral

HV(20)

0.8%

Neutral

OBV Trend

662.1K

Buy

+40

Volume Ratio

0.66x

Neutral

A/D Line

-258.4K

Buy

+35

Technical Analysis — Timeline

Neutral+143M

Jul 2, 06:52 AM

Confidence: 61%Pivot Point: $82.46

Neutral+153M

Jun 27, 04:31 AM

Confidence: 61%Pivot Point: $141.53

Neutral+133M

Jun 26, 03:47 AM

Confidence: 61%Pivot Point: $136.27

Neutral+143M

Jun 23, 10:54 AM

Confidence: 61%Pivot Point: $125.66

Neutral+143M

Jun 20, 09:08 AM

Confidence: 61%Pivot Point: $82.45

Neutral+143M

Jun 20, 03:31 AM

Confidence: 61%Pivot Point: $113.37

Neutral+143M

Jun 19, 10:03 PM

Confidence: 61%Pivot Point: $82.43

Neutral+151D

Jun 16, 01:50 AM

Confidence: 58%Pivot Point: $104.92

Neutral+153M

Jun 16, 01:35 AM

Confidence: 61%Pivot Point: $104.96

Neutral+133M

Jun 13, 02:32 AM

Confidence: 61%Pivot Point: $93.79

Neutral+143M

Jun 6, 01:32 AM

Confidence: 61%Pivot Point: $82.43

Neutral+153M

Jun 4, 04:18 PM

Confidence: 61%Pivot Point: $108.98

Neutral+153M

May 30, 12:31 AM

Confidence: 61%Pivot Point: $85.46

Neutral+143M

May 27, 05:52 PM

Confidence: 61%Pivot Point: $82.46

Neutral+143M

May 22, 11:32 PM

Confidence: 61%Pivot Point: $82.47

Neutral+143M

May 16, 02:24 AM

Confidence: 61%Pivot Point: $82.42

Neutral+143M

May 15, 10:32 PM

Confidence: 61%Pivot Point: $82.47

Neutral+143M

May 12, 06:31 AM

Confidence: 61%Pivot Point: $82.47

Neutral+143M

May 10, 06:07 PM

Confidence: 61%Pivot Point: $82.41

Neutral+143M

May 10, 03:16 PM

Confidence: 61%Pivot Point: $82.41

Based on synthetic daily closing prices · Indicators as of Jul 4, 2026

Monte Carlo Simulation

Model 2/710,000 paths

BuyScore: +48 | Confidence: 79%30D horizon • Jump Diffusion (Merton) • Computed in 429ms

Probability Up

79.2%

Probability Down

20.8%

Expected Return

+3.29%

Value at Risk (95%)

$5.81

Mean

$173.55

Median

$173.24

Std Dev

$7.24

Skewness

0.303

Kurtosis

0.870

Expected Shortfall

$9.00

Computed in 429ms

Prediction Cone

Price Distribution

Percentiles

PercentilePriceReturnProb

P5(Bear Case)$162.21-3.5%5%

P10$164.88-1.9%10%

P25$168.94+0.5%25%

P50(Base Case)$173.24+3.1%50%

P75$177.93+5.9%75%

P90$182.72+8.7%90%

P95(Bull Case)$185.89+10.6%95%

Probability Calculator

Probability of reaching

(+4.7%)

34.1%

10,000 probabilistic scenarios

Quick targets:

10,000 simulated paths · Jump Diffusion model · As of Jul 4, 2026

COT Positioning

CFTC Commitment of Traders — Report: 2026-03-28 · Source: CFTC · Model 7/7

COT Score

-14NEUTRAL

-1000+100

Confidence: 40%

Net Position

Historical Percentile

◄ ShortNeutralLong ►

Position History (52 weeks)

Managed Money Net Price Extremes

Trader Breakdown

OI: 178,500(+6,200)

🏦 Managed Money (Hedge Funds)

Net Long+64,250+8,300 this week

Long Contracts: 82,45056.4% of OIShort Contracts: 18,200

🏛️ Swap Dealers (Banks)

Net Short-55,900-4,100 this week

Long Contracts: 12,50045.3% of OIShort Contracts: 68,400

🏭 Producers / Merchants

Net Short-44,100-2,800 this week

Long Contracts: 8,20033.9% of OIShort Contracts: 52,300

📊 Other Reportables

Net Long+12,400+1,500 this week

Long Contracts: 18,50013.8% of OIShort Contracts: 6,100

👤 Non-Reportable (Small Traders)

Net Long+23,350

Long Contracts: 32,35023.2% of OIShort Contracts: 9,000

Net Position % OI

35.99%

Weekly Change

+8,300

Trend

increasing shorts

Historical Percentile

51st

Contrarian Signal

No extreme positioning detected. Positioning within normal range (51st percentile).

Speculator Sentiment

Longs82%

Shorts18%

Report Date

2026-03-28

Spread

22,100

Source: CFTC Commitment of Traders · Report: 2026-03-28

Macro Analysis

Economic forces driving precious metals · Source: FRED / WGC · Model 6/7

Macro Score

+53BUY

Confidence: 100%

-1000+100

KEY DRIVERS

1.real Rates↑ Bullish(25%)

2.dollar Index↑ Bullish(20%)

3.central Bank Buying↑ Bullish(15%)

4.etf Flows↑ Bullish(12%)

5.inflation↑ Bullish(10%)

25%

20%

15%

12%

10%

Real Rates (10Y TIPS)

BUY

1.23%

Score: +52

5Y: 1.45%BE 10Y: 2.89%

Real rates declining — historically strong gold catalyst. 10Y TIPS fell 57bps from peak.

Dollar Index (DXY)

BUY

98.73

Score: +60

MA50: 100.15MA200: 103.42RSI: 35.6

DXY below both 50-day and 200-day MA. RSI oversold at 35.6. Weak dollar strongly supports gold.

Inflation

BUY

3.2% YoY

Score: +39

PCE Core: 2.8%⚠ Above 2% target

Inflation persistent above 2% target. Gold benefits as inflation hedge. PCE Core at 2.8%.

Monetary Policy

BUY

4.25-4.50%

Score: +48

Cut prob.62%

Next FOMC2026-05-06

ECB / BOJ2.5% / 0.5%

Markets price 62% chance of rate cut at next meeting. Lower rates reduce opportunity cost of gold.

ETF Flows

BUY

Gold ETFs+63.8t

Silver ETFs+22.3t

ETF	AUM	Holdings	7D	30D	YTD
GLD	$89.5B	892.3t	+12.4t	+48.2t	+245t
IAU	$32.1B	320.5t	+3.8t	+15.6t	+78t
SLV	$14.2B	14,250t	+5.1t	+22.3t	+95t
PPLT	$1.8B	28.4t	+0.3t	+1.2t	+5.5t

Strong ETF inflows — $63.8t gold inflows in 30 days. GLD AUM at $89.5B. Institutional conviction.

Central Bank Buying

BUY

2024

1,045t

2025

1,120t

YTD 2026

198t

Q Avg

265t

pre-22: 125t

TOP BUYERS (YTD)

China (PBOC)

62t+12t

India (RBI)

28t+5t

Turkey (CBRT)

22t-3t

Poland (NBP)

18t+2t

Czech Republic (CNB)

8t+1t

Singapore (MAS)

6t+4t

Central banks bought 1,120t in 2025 (vs 125t pre-2022 avg). De-dollarization accelerating.

Yield Curve

⚠ INVERTEDBUY

10Y-2Y: 42bps10Y-3M: -15bpsTrend: steepening

Actual Normal Inverted

Correlations

Silver vs Real Rates

-0.82Strong Inverse

Silver vs DXY

-0.68Moderate Inverse

Silver vs Inflation

+0.45Moderate

Silver vs S&P 500

-0.15Weak Inverse

Silver vs VIX

+0.32Weak

Supply & Demand

BUY

Annual Supply

26,000t

+ 5,200t recycled

Annual Demand

32,400t

Deficit: 1,200t

Jewelry22%

Investment25%

Central Banks0%

Technology53%

Supply deficit of 1200 tonnes. Mining supply flat.

Source: FRED (Federal Reserve) · World Gold Council · As of Jul 4, 2026

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Geopolitical Impact on Silver

Model 5/7

Current outlook

Bullish (+409)

Confidence

31%

Risk Level

78/100

Key drivers

•EU Enacts Strict Subsidies for Domestic Solar Silver Use(6.2)

•Russia Imposes Export Quotas on PGM Group Metals(8.8)

•Hormuz Strait Tensions Trigger Oil Spike(7.5)

AURUS Index™ Prediction Engine

LSTM Time Series

Neutral

$168.84

Model Accuracy: 70.3%Confidence: 90%

Monte Carlo 10K

Bullish

$175.56

Model Accuracy: 65.9%Confidence: 51%

GARCH Volatility

Neutral

$168.67

Model Accuracy: 68%Confidence: 76%

Technical Analysis

Bullish

$171.36

Model Accuracy: 70.3%Confidence: 54%

NLP Sentiment

Neutral

$168.00

Model Accuracy: 65.7%Confidence: 54%

Macro/Fundamental

Bullish

$175.56

Model Accuracy: 71.7%Confidence: 52%

COT Positioning

Bullish

$174.55

Model Accuracy: 63.8%Confidence: 76%

Disclaimer: AURUS AI provides AI-generated market analysis for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Terms · Privacy

Silver Market Analysis & AI Predictions

Silver

The Dual Nature of Silver

Silver Market Ratios & Industrial Demand

Seasonal Patterns

Average Monthly Return

Current Month vs Historical

Annual Performance Heatmap

GARCH Volatility Model

Volatility History & Forecast

Volatility Term Structure

Expected Daily Range

Technical Analysis

Category Weights

Analysis Summary

No Signal Generated

Technical Analysis — Timeline

Monte Carlo Simulation

Prediction Cone

Price Distribution

Percentiles

COT Positioning

Net Position

Position History (52 weeks)

Trader Breakdown

Contrarian Signal

Speculator Sentiment

Macro Analysis

Real Rates (10Y TIPS)

Dollar Index (DXY)

Inflation

Monetary Policy

ETF Flows

Central Bank Buying

Yield Curve

Correlations

Supply & Demand

Premium Feature

Geopolitical Impact on Silver

AURUS Index™ Prediction Engine

LSTM Time Series

Monte Carlo 10K

GARCH Volatility

Technical Analysis

NLP Sentiment

Macro/Fundamental

COT Positioning