What drives gold prices?

Gold prices are primarily driven by real interest rates (nominal Treasury yields minus inflation expectations), the US Dollar Index (DXY), central bank purchasing, geopolitical risk, and seasonal jewellery demand from India and China. When real rates fall, gold typically rises as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets decreases.

How does Aurus Insight predict gold prices?

Aurus Insight combines 7 independent AI models — Monte Carlo simulation, GARCH volatility forecasting, technical analysis with 15+ indicators, NLP geopolitical sentiment scoring, macroeconomic correlation analysis, CFTC COT positioning data, and linear regression — into a weighted consensus score called the AURUS Index, updated in real time.

What is the Gold/Silver ratio and why does it matter?

The Gold/Silver ratio measures how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. Historically averaging 60-80x, extreme readings above 80 suggest silver is undervalued relative to gold, while readings below 60 suggest overvaluation. Traders use this ratio to time relative-value trades between the two metals.

Gold Market Analysis & AI Predictions

Gold

XAU/USD

$12,142.44

+$453.06 (+3.88%)

24h High

$12,164.15

24h Low

$11,778.70

Open

$11,671.82

24h Change

+3.88%

7d Change

+23.04%

Market Cap

$82.6T

24h Change

+3.88%

7d Change

+23.04%

30d Change

+112.38%

YTD

+159.86%

24h High

$12,164.15

24h Low

$11,778.70

Gold Market Ratios & Correlations

Gold/Silver Ratio

72.3x

Historical Avg: 60-80x

Gold/Platinum Ratio

3.0x

Historical Avg: 1.5-2.0x

Gold/DXY Correlation

-0.78

Strong Inverse

Real Yield (10Y TIPS)

1.23%

↓ -15bps

Seasonal Patterns

Average Monthly Return

Current Month vs Historical

Historical Avg

+1.2%

Jul • 20Y average

Current Month

+2.1%

Jul 2026

vs Average

+0.9%

Above historical average

Gold in Jul has averaged +1.2% over the past 20Y.

Annual Performance Heatmap

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2016	+0.6	+0.4	-0.9	0	+1.1	+2.3	+1.1	-1.7	+3.3	-0.5	+0.5	-1
2017	+2.9	-0.3	-1.6	+2.3	+0.3	+1.5	+0.4	+0.6	+2.6	-1.2	-0.2	+1.3
2018	+2.2	-1	+0.6	+1.5	-0.4	+0.8	+2.7	-0.1	+1.9	-1.9	+2.1	+0.6
2019	+1.4	-1.8	-0.1	+0.8	-1.1	+3.1	+2	-0.8	+1.2	+0.3	+1.3	-0.2
2020	+0.7	+0.5	-0.8	+0.1	+1.2	+2.4	+1.3	-1.5	+3.4	-0.4	+0.6	-0.9
2021	+3	-0.2	-1.5	+2.4	+0.5	+1.7	+0.5	+0.7	+2.7	-1.1	-0.1	+1.4
2022	+2.3	-0.9	-2.2	+1.7	-0.3	+0.9	+2.8	0	+2	-1.8	+2.2	+0.7
2023	+1.6	-1.6	0	+0.9	-1	+3.2	+2.1	-0.7	+1.3	+0.5	+1.5	-0.1
2024	+0.8	+0.6	-0.7	+0.2	-1.7	+2.5	+1.4	-1.4	+3.6	-0.2	+0.7	-0.8
2025	+3.1	-0.1	-1.4	-0.5	+0.6	+1.8	+0.7	+0.8	+2.8	-1	0	+1.5

Strong decline

Flat

Strong gain

Technical Analysis

-8

NeutralConfidence: 62%

▲ 5 Buy● 5 Neutral▼ 7 Sell

Support

$12128.56

Pivot Point

$12143.82

Resistance

$12154.84

Category Weights

Moving Averages30%

-58

Momentum30%

+34

Bands & Channels15%

Volume10%

-38

Patterns Detected15%

Analysis Summary

Technical analysis is mixed. Indicators are divided, suggesting caution. Composite score: -8/100, confidence: 62%.

▲ Top Bullish: RSI(14), Stochastic(14,3), Williams %R(14)

▼ Top Bearish: ADX(14), Ichimoku Cloud, Parabolic SAR

Score: -8/100Confidence: 62%17 indicators analyzed

No Signal Generated

Conditions not met to generate a reliable trading signal

✗Score must be above +40 or below -40|-8| = 8≥ 40

✓Confidence must be above 50%62%≥ 50%

✗Indicator alignment must be above 60%41% (7/17)≥ 60%

IndicatorValueSignalScore

MA Crossovers

vs SMA200: +0.4%

Neutral

-15

ADX(14)

56.8 (Very Strong)

Strong Sell

-90

Parabolic SAR

$12173.17

Strong Sell

-60

Ichimoku Cloud

Below Cloud

Strong Sell

-65

RSI(14)

10.9

Strong Buy

+80

MACD(12,26,9)

-46.84

Sell

-30

Stochastic(14,3)

%K: 3.4 / %D: 2.9

Strong Buy

+70

Williams %R(14)

-94.3

Buy

+50

CCI(20)

-126

Buy

+40

ROC(12)

-0.68%

Neutral

-5

Bollinger Bands

%B: 8.0%

Buy

+30

ATR(14)

$18.56 (0.15%)

Neutral

Keltner Squeeze

No Squeeze

Neutral

HV(20)

0.6%

Neutral

OBV Trend

21.8K

Sell

-40

Volume Ratio

1.54x

Sell

-40

A/D Line

-536.2K

Sell

-35

Technical Analysis — Timeline

Neutral-83M

Jul 4, 05:31 AM

Confidence: 62%Pivot Point: $4675.70

Neutral-83M

Jul 4, 05:31 AM

Confidence: 62%Pivot Point: $4676.20

Neutral-83M

Jul 4, 05:31 AM

Confidence: 62%Pivot Point: $4675.70

Neutral-83M

Jul 4, 05:31 AM

Confidence: 62%Pivot Point: $4674.66

Neutral-83M

Jul 4, 05:31 AM

Confidence: 62%Pivot Point: $4676.20

Neutral-83M

Jul 4, 05:31 AM

Confidence: 62%Pivot Point: $4674.66

Neutral-83M

Jul 3, 01:02 PM

Confidence: 62%Pivot Point: $4676.10

Neutral-83M

Jul 3, 01:02 PM

Confidence: 62%Pivot Point: $4675.64

Neutral-83M

Jul 3, 01:02 PM

Confidence: 62%Pivot Point: $4675.64

Neutral-83M

Jul 3, 01:02 PM

Confidence: 62%Pivot Point: $4676.10

Neutral-83M

Jul 3, 10:27 AM

Confidence: 62%Pivot Point: $4674.55

Neutral-83M

Jul 3, 10:27 AM

Confidence: 62%Pivot Point: $4674.55

Neutral-83M

Jul 2, 06:51 PM

Confidence: 62%Pivot Point: $4672.15

Neutral-83M

Jul 2, 06:51 PM

Confidence: 62%Pivot Point: $4672.15

Neutral-83M

Jul 2, 06:51 PM

Confidence: 62%Pivot Point: $4672.52

Neutral-83M

Jul 2, 06:51 PM

Confidence: 62%Pivot Point: $4672.52

Neutral-83M

Jul 2, 06:51 PM

Confidence: 62%Pivot Point: $4674.93

Neutral-83M

Jul 2, 06:51 PM

Confidence: 62%Pivot Point: $4674.93

Neutral-83M

Jul 2, 07:08 AM

Confidence: 62%Pivot Point: $4676.14

Neutral-83M

Jul 2, 07:08 AM

Confidence: 62%Pivot Point: $4676.14

Based on synthetic daily closing prices · Indicators as of Jul 4, 2026

Macro Analysis

Economic forces driving precious metals · Source: FRED / WGC · Model 6/7

Macro Score

+70BUY

Confidence: 78%

-1000+100

KEY DRIVERS

1.real Rates↑ Bullish(25%)

2.dollar Index↑ Bullish(20%)

3.central Bank Buying↑ Bullish(15%)

4.etf Flows↑ Bullish(12%)

5.inflation↑ Bullish(10%)

25%

20%

15%

12%

10%

Real Rates (10Y TIPS)

BUY

1.23%

Score: +65

5Y: 1.45%BE 10Y: 2.89%

Real rates declining — historically strong gold catalyst. 10Y TIPS fell 57bps from peak.

Dollar Index (DXY)

BUY

98.73

Score: +75

MA50: 100.15MA200: 103.42RSI: 35.6

DXY below both 50-day and 200-day MA. RSI oversold at 35.6. Weak dollar strongly supports gold.

Inflation

BUY

3.2% YoY

Score: +50

PCE Core: 2.8%⚠ Above 2% target

Inflation persistent above 2% target. Gold benefits as inflation hedge. PCE Core at 2.8%.

Monetary Policy

BUY

4.25-4.50%

Score: +60

Cut prob.62%

Next FOMC2026-05-06

ECB / BOJ2.5% / 0.5%

Markets price 62% chance of rate cut at next meeting. Lower rates reduce opportunity cost of gold.

ETF Flows

BUY

Gold ETFs+63.8t

Silver ETFs+22.3t

ETF	AUM	Holdings	7D	30D	YTD
GLD	$89.5B	892.3t	+12.4t	+48.2t	+245t
IAU	$32.1B	320.5t	+3.8t	+15.6t	+78t
SLV	$14.2B	14,250t	+5.1t	+22.3t	+95t
PPLT	$1.8B	28.4t	+0.3t	+1.2t	+5.5t

Strong ETF inflows — $63.8t gold inflows in 30 days. GLD AUM at $89.5B. Institutional conviction.

Central Bank Buying

BUY

2024

1,045t

2025

1,120t

YTD 2026

198t

Q Avg

265t

pre-22: 125t

TOP BUYERS (YTD)

China (PBOC)

62t+12t

India (RBI)

28t+5t

Turkey (CBRT)

22t-3t

Poland (NBP)

18t+2t

Czech Republic (CNB)

8t+1t

Singapore (MAS)

6t+4t

Central banks bought 1,120t in 2025 (vs 125t pre-2022 avg). De-dollarization accelerating.

Yield Curve

⚠ INVERTEDBUY

10Y-2Y: 42bps10Y-3M: -15bpsTrend: steepening

Actual Normal Inverted

Correlations

Gold vs Real Rates

-0.82Strong Inverse

Gold vs DXY

-0.68Moderate Inverse

Gold vs Inflation

+0.45Moderate

Gold vs S&P 500

-0.15Weak Inverse

Gold vs VIX

+0.32Weak

Supply & Demand

BUY

Annual Supply

3,644t

+ 1,240t recycled

Annual Demand

5,320t

Deficit: 436t

Jewelry38%

Investment29%

Central Banks22%

Technology11%

Supply deficit of 436 tonnes. Mining supply flat.

Source: FRED (Federal Reserve) · World Gold Council · As of Jul 4, 2026

Premium Feature

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Geopolitical Impact on Gold

Model 5/7

Current outlook

Bullish (+619)

Confidence

40%

Risk Level

78/100

Key drivers

•EU Enacts Strict Subsidies for Domestic Solar Silver Use(6.2)

•Russia Imposes Export Quotas on PGM Group Metals(8.8)

•Hormuz Strait Tensions Trigger Oil Spike(7.5)

Monte Carlo Simulation

Model 2/710,000 paths

Strong BuyScore: +72 | Confidence: 88%30D horizon • Jump Diffusion (Merton) • Computed in 410ms

Probability Up

90.5%

Probability Down

9.5%

Expected Return

+3.16%

Value at Risk (95%)

$117.93

Mean

$12523.04

Median

$12531.70

Std Dev

$295.33

Skewness

-0.304

Kurtosis

0.621

Expected Shortfall

$288.97

Computed in 410ms

Prediction Cone

Price Distribution

Percentiles

PercentilePriceReturnProb

P5(Bear Case)$12021.64-1.0%5%

P10$12147.48+0.1%10%

P25$12342.74+1.7%25%

P50(Base Case)$12531.70+3.2%50%

P75$12720.51+4.8%75%

P90$12884.82+6.1%90%

P95(Bull Case)$12986.08+7.0%95%

Probability Calculator

Probability of reaching

(+5.0%)

22.1%

10,000 probabilistic scenarios

Quick targets:

10,000 simulated paths · Jump Diffusion model · As of Jul 4, 2026

GARCH Volatility Model

Model 3/70ms

Volatility RegimeTURBULENT

Calm 10%

Normal 40%

Turbulent 50%

Crisis 0%

Persistence: 0.99Half-Life: 69 daysCurrent: 10.2%Long-run: 6.2%

Volatility History & Forecast

Volatility Term Structure

Expected Daily Range

+2σ

$4,731.28

+1σ

$4,701.16

Current

$4,671.03

-1σ

$4,640.90

-2σ

$4,610.78

68% chance within $4,640.90 - $4,701.16

95% chance within $4,610.78 - $4,731.28

Volatility model · Based on 252 trading days · As of Jul 4, 2026

COT Positioning

CFTC Commitment of Traders — Report: 2026-03-28 · Source: CFTC · Model 7/7

COT Score

+72BUY

-1000+100

Confidence: 76%

Net Position

Historical Percentile

◄ ShortNeutralLong ►

Position History (52 weeks)

Managed Money Net Price Extremes

Trader Breakdown

OI: 548,200(+14,500)

🏦 Managed Money (Hedge Funds)

Net Long+203,676+12,450 this week

Long Contracts: 245,83252.5% of OIShort Contracts: 42,156

🏛️ Swap Dealers (Banks)

Net Short-126,580-8,200 this week

Long Contracts: 52,34042.2% of OIShort Contracts: 178,920

🏭 Producers / Merchants

Net Short-177,140-5,300 this week

Long Contracts: 18,50039.1% of OIShort Contracts: 195,640

📊 Other Reportables

Net Long+26,820+3,200 this week

Long Contracts: 42,10010.5% of OIShort Contracts: 15,280

👤 Non-Reportable (Small Traders)

Net Long+73,224

Long Contracts: 95,23021.4% of OIShort Contracts: 22,006

Net Position % OI

37.15%

Weekly Change

+12,450

Trend

increasing shorts

Historical Percentile

60th

Contrarian Signal

No extreme positioning detected. Positioning within normal range (60th percentile).

Speculator Sentiment

Longs85%

Shorts15%

Report Date

2026-03-28

Spread

68,420

Source: CFTC Commitment of Traders · Report: 2026-03-28

AURUS Index™ Prediction Engine

LSTM Time Series

Bullish

$12,338.82

Model Accuracy: 70.8%Confidence: 88%

Monte Carlo 10K

Bullish

$12,593.86

Model Accuracy: 70.2%Confidence: 84%

GARCH Volatility

Bullish

$12,448.12

Model Accuracy: 68%Confidence: 66%

Technical Analysis

Bullish

$12,472.41

Model Accuracy: 71.5%Confidence: 67%

NLP Sentiment

Neutral

$12,302.39

Model Accuracy: 65.8%Confidence: 65%

Macro/Fundamental

Bullish

$12,691.01

Model Accuracy: 73.9%Confidence: 73%

COT Positioning

Bullish

$12,630.29

Model Accuracy: 66.6%Confidence: 81%

Disclaimer: AURUS AI provides AI-generated market analysis for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Terms · Privacy

Gold Market Analysis & AI Predictions

Gold

Understanding the Gold Market

Gold Market Ratios & Correlations

Seasonal Patterns

Average Monthly Return

Current Month vs Historical

Annual Performance Heatmap

Technical Analysis

Category Weights

Analysis Summary

No Signal Generated

Technical Analysis — Timeline

Macro Analysis

Real Rates (10Y TIPS)

Dollar Index (DXY)

Inflation

Monetary Policy

ETF Flows

Central Bank Buying

Yield Curve

Correlations

Supply & Demand

Premium Feature

Geopolitical Impact on Gold

Monte Carlo Simulation

Prediction Cone

Price Distribution

Percentiles

GARCH Volatility Model

Volatility History & Forecast

Volatility Term Structure

Expected Daily Range

COT Positioning

Net Position

Position History (52 weeks)

Trader Breakdown

Contrarian Signal

Speculator Sentiment

AURUS Index™ Prediction Engine

LSTM Time Series

Monte Carlo 10K

GARCH Volatility

Technical Analysis

NLP Sentiment

Macro/Fundamental

COT Positioning