How does the EV transition affect palladium prices?

Battery electric vehicles do not require catalytic converters, eliminating palladium demand per unit. However, hybrid vehicles still use gasoline engines with palladium-based catalysts, and tighter China VI and Euro 7 emission standards increase palladium loading per vehicle. The net effect depends on the pace of full electrification versus hybrid adoption.

Why is palladium so volatile compared to other precious metals?

Palladium's volatility stems from its highly concentrated supply (Russia and South Africa produce 75%+ of global output), thin market liquidity compared to gold, and sensitivity to both automotive production cycles and geopolitical sanctions. The total annual palladium market value is roughly one-twentieth of gold's.

What is the best way to track palladium supply risk?

Key supply risk indicators include Norilsk Nickel production reports, Russian export policy changes, South African mining disruptions, NYMEX palladium futures open interest and COT net positioning, ETF holdings (particularly PALL), and the palladium lease rate.

Palladium — Real-time precious metals intelligence

Palladium

XPD/USD

$1,923.95

+$16.30 (+0.85%)

24h High

$1,939.39

24h Low

$1,908.60

Open

$1,907.51

24h Change

+0.85%

7d Change

-1.23%

Market Cap

$654B

24h Change

+0.85%

7d Change

-1.23%

30d Change

+3.45%

YTD

+15.60%

24h High

$1,939.39

24h Low

$1,908.60

Palladium Market Ratios & Auto Metrics

Palladium/Platinum Ratio

1.0x

Substitution risk indicator

Auto Catalyst Demand %

80.00%

Gasoline vehicle dependency

Recycling Supply %

30.00%

Growing secondary source

Global EV Penetration %

18.50%

Long-term demand erosion risk

Seasonal Patterns

Average Monthly Return

Current Month vs Historical

Historical Avg

+1.2%

Jul • 20Y average

Current Month

+2.1%

Jul 2026

vs Average

+0.9%

Above historical average

Palladium in Jul has averaged +1.2% over the past 20Y.

Annual Performance Heatmap

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2016	+1	-1.1	+0.3	+2.6	+0.1	-0.3	+1.4	-3.3	+3.2	-0.8	+0.9	+0.6
2017	+3.3	-1.8	-0.4	+4.9	-0.7	-1.1	+0.7	-1	+2.5	-1.5	+0.2	+2.9
2018	+2.6	-2.5	+1.8	+4.1	-1.4	-1.8	+3	-1.7	+1.8	-2.2	+2.5	+2.2
2019	+1.8	-3.3	+1.1	+3.4	-2.1	+0.5	+2.3	-2.4	+1.1	0	+1.7	+1.4
2020	+1.1	-1	+0.4	+2.7	+0.2	-0.2	+1.6	-3.1	+3.3	-0.7	+1	+0.7
2021	+3.4	-1.7	-0.3	+5	-0.5	-0.9	+0.8	-0.9	+2.6	-1.4	+0.3	+3
2022	+2.7	-2.4	-1	+4.3	-1.3	-1.7	+3.1	-1.6	+1.9	-2.1	+2.6	+2.3
2023	+2	-3.2	+1.2	+3.5	-2	+0.6	+2.4	-2.3	+1.2	+0.2	+1.9	+1.5
2024	+1.2	-0.9	+0.5	+2.8	-2.7	-0.1	+1.7	-3	+3.5	-0.5	+1.1	+0.8
2025	+3.5	-1.6	-0.2	+2.1	-0.4	-0.8	+1	-0.8	+2.7	-1.3	+0.4	+3.1

Strong decline

Flat

Strong gain

Macro Analysis

Economic forces driving precious metals · Source: FRED / WGC · Model 6/7

Macro Score

+34BUY

Confidence: 100%

-1000+100

KEY DRIVERS

1.real Rates↑ Bullish(25%)

2.dollar Index↑ Bullish(20%)

3.central Bank Buying↑ Bullish(15%)

4.etf Flows↑ Bullish(12%)

5.inflation↑ Bullish(10%)

25%

20%

15%

12%

10%

Real Rates (10Y TIPS)

BUY

1.23%

Score: +33

5Y: 1.45%BE 10Y: 2.89%

Real rates declining — historically strong gold catalyst. 10Y TIPS fell 57bps from peak.

Dollar Index (DXY)

BUY

98.73

Score: +39

MA50: 100.15MA200: 103.42RSI: 35.6

DXY below both 50-day and 200-day MA. RSI oversold at 35.6. Weak dollar strongly supports gold.

Inflation

BUY

3.2% YoY

Score: +24

PCE Core: 2.8%⚠ Above 2% target

Inflation persistent above 2% target. Gold benefits as inflation hedge. PCE Core at 2.8%.

Monetary Policy

BUY

4.25-4.50%

Score: +30

Cut prob.62%

Next FOMC2026-05-06

ECB / BOJ2.5% / 0.5%

Markets price 62% chance of rate cut at next meeting. Lower rates reduce opportunity cost of gold.

ETF Flows

BUY

Gold ETFs+63.8t

Silver ETFs+22.3t

ETF	AUM	Holdings	7D	30D	YTD
GLD	$89.5B	892.3t	+12.4t	+48.2t	+245t
IAU	$32.1B	320.5t	+3.8t	+15.6t	+78t
SLV	$14.2B	14,250t	+5.1t	+22.3t	+95t
PPLT	$1.8B	28.4t	+0.3t	+1.2t	+5.5t

Strong ETF inflows — $63.8t gold inflows in 30 days. GLD AUM at $89.5B. Institutional conviction.

Central Bank Buying

BUY

2024

1,045t

2025

1,120t

YTD 2026

198t

Q Avg

265t

pre-22: 125t

TOP BUYERS (YTD)

China (PBOC)

62t+12t

India (RBI)

28t+5t

Turkey (CBRT)

22t-3t

Poland (NBP)

18t+2t

Czech Republic (CNB)

8t+1t

Singapore (MAS)

6t+4t

Central banks bought 1,120t in 2025 (vs 125t pre-2022 avg). De-dollarization accelerating.

Yield Curve

⚠ INVERTEDBUY

10Y-2Y: 42bps10Y-3M: -15bpsTrend: steepening

Actual Normal Inverted

Correlations

Palladium vs Real Rates

-0.82Strong Inverse

Palladium vs DXY

-0.68Moderate Inverse

Palladium vs Inflation

+0.45Moderate

Palladium vs S&P 500

-0.15Weak Inverse

Palladium vs VIX

+0.32Weak

Supply & Demand

BUY

Annual Supply

210t

+ 80t recycled

Annual Demand

310t

Deficit: 20t

Jewelry28%

Investment12%

Central Banks0%

Technology60%

Supply deficit of 20 tonnes. Mining supply flat.

Source: FRED (Federal Reserve) · World Gold Council · As of Jul 4, 2026

Premium Feature

Upgrade to Premium to unlock this feature and 7 AI models.

COT Positioning

CFTC Commitment of Traders — Report: 2026-03-28 · Source: CFTC · Model 7/7

COT Score

-23SELL

-1000+100

Confidence: 40%

Net Position

Historical Percentile

◄ ShortNeutralLong ►

Position History (52 weeks)

Managed Money Net Price Extremes

Trader Breakdown

OI: 32,400(-2,800)

🏦 Managed Money (Hedge Funds)

Net Short-1,600-3,200 this week

Long Contracts: 8,20055.6% of OIShort Contracts: 9,800

🏛️ Swap Dealers (Banks)

Net Short-4,300-500 this week

Long Contracts: 2,10026.2% of OIShort Contracts: 6,400

🏭 Producers / Merchants

Net Short-2,400+200 this week

Long Contracts: 1,80018.5% of OIShort Contracts: 4,200

📊 Other Reportables

Net Long+1,900+300 this week

Long Contracts: 3,10013.3% of OIShort Contracts: 1,200

👤 Non-Reportable (Small Traders)

Net Long+2,400

Long Contracts: 5,80028.4% of OIShort Contracts: 3,400

Net Position % OI

-4.94%

Weekly Change

-3,200

Trend

increasing shorts

Historical Percentile

34th

Contrarian Signal

No extreme positioning detected. Positioning within normal range (34th percentile).

Speculator Sentiment

Longs46%

Shorts54%

Report Date

2026-03-28

Spread

1,800

Source: CFTC Commitment of Traders · Report: 2026-03-28

Geopolitical Impact on Palladium

Model 5/7

Current outlook

Bullish (+146)

Confidence

27%

Risk Level

82/100

Key drivers

•Sanctions Expanded on Russian Norilsk Nickel(8.5)

•Fed Signals 'Higher for Longer' Despite Recession Fears(6.8)

•South African Mining Union General Strike(8.0)

GARCH Volatility Model

Model 3/72ms

Volatility RegimeNORMAL

Calm 2%

Normal 50%

Turbulent 48%

Crisis 0%

Regime changed from TURBULENT → NORMAL (5d ago)

Persistence: 0.97Half-Life: 20.5 daysCurrent: 16.4%Long-run: 15.1%

Volatility History & Forecast

Volatility Term Structure

Expected Daily Range

+2σ

$1,962.29

+1σ

$1,942.38

Current

$1,922.47

-1σ

$1,902.56

-2σ

$1,882.65

68% chance within $1,902.56 - $1,942.38

95% chance within $1,882.65 - $1,962.29

Volatility model · Based on 252 trading days · As of Jul 4, 2026

Technical Analysis

-10

NeutralConfidence: 60%

▲ 5 Buy● 4 Neutral▼ 8 Sell

Support

$1916.14

Pivot Point

$1925.85

Resistance

$1932.67

Category Weights

Moving Averages30%

-68

Momentum30%

+38

Bands & Channels15%

+15

Volume10%

-38

Patterns Detected15%

Analysis Summary

Technical analysis is mixed. Indicators are divided, suggesting caution. Composite score: -10/100, confidence: 60%.

▲ Top Bullish: RSI(14), CCI(20), Stochastic(14,3)

▼ Top Bearish: MA Crossovers, ADX(14), Ichimoku Cloud

Score: -10/100Confidence: 60%17 indicators analyzed

No Signal Generated

Conditions not met to generate a reliable trading signal

✗Score must be above +40 or below -40|-10| = 10≥ 40

✓Confidence must be above 50%60%≥ 50%

✗Indicator alignment must be above 60%47% (8/17)≥ 60%

IndicatorValueSignalScore

MA Crossovers

Below all MAs

Strong Sell

-75

ADX(14)

39.4 (Strong)

Strong Sell

-70

Parabolic SAR

$1947.31

Strong Sell

-60

Ichimoku Cloud

Below Cloud

Strong Sell

-65

RSI(14)

16.8

Strong Buy

+80

MACD(12,26,9)

-8.12

Sell

-40

Stochastic(14,3)

%K: 4.8 / %D: 4.1

Strong Buy

+70

Williams %R(14)

-90.5

Buy

+50

CCI(20)

-203

Strong Buy

+80

ROC(12)

-1.57%

Neutral

-13

Bollinger Bands

%B: -13.3%

Strong Buy

+60

ATR(14)

$5.91 (0.31%)

Neutral

Keltner Squeeze

No Squeeze

Neutral

HV(20)

2.3%

Neutral

OBV Trend

524.0K

Sell

-40

Volume Ratio

1.65x

Sell

-40

A/D Line

-307.5K

Sell

-35

Technical Analysis — Timeline

Neutral-103M

Jul 4, 05:32 AM

Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $1925.85

Neutral-103M

Jun 27, 04:31 AM

Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $1925.23

Neutral-103M

Jun 20, 03:32 AM

Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $1925.97

Neutral-103M

Jun 14, 05:20 PM

Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $1998.04

Neutral-103M

Jun 13, 02:32 AM

Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $2258.86

Neutral-103M

Jun 6, 01:32 AM

Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $1926.44

Neutral-103M

May 30, 12:32 AM

Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $1925.20

Neutral-103M

May 22, 11:32 PM

Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $1926.96

Neutral-103M

May 15, 10:32 PM

Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $1925.68

Neutral-103M

May 12, 09:00 AM

Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $1925.45

Neutral-103M

May 11, 09:30 PM

Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $1925.72

Neutral-103M

May 11, 02:11 AM

Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $2384.75

Neutral-103M

May 11, 01:34 AM

Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $1925.75

Neutral-103M

May 8, 09:32 PM

Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $2234.78

Neutral-103M

May 1, 08:32 PM

Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $1926.91

Neutral-103M

Apr 24, 07:32 PM

Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $2126.91

Neutral-103M

Apr 22, 10:39 AM

Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $2008.94

Neutral-103M

Apr 22, 09:22 AM

Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $2009.36

Neutral-103M

Apr 22, 09:22 AM

Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $2009.36

Neutral-103M

Apr 17, 06:31 PM

Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $1925.64

Based on synthetic daily closing prices · Indicators as of Jul 4, 2026

Monte Carlo Simulation

Model 2/710,000 paths

Strong BuyScore: +76 | Confidence: 86%30D horizon • Jump Diffusion (Merton) • Computed in 900ms

Probability Up

92.1%

Probability Down

7.9%

Expected Return

+4.05%

Value at Risk (95%)

$13.19

Mean

$2000.79

Median

$1999.68

Std Dev

$55.58

Skewness

0.072

Kurtosis

-0.004

Expected Shortfall

$35.06

Computed in 900ms

Prediction Cone

Price Distribution

Percentiles

PercentilePriceReturnProb

P5(Bear Case)$1909.78-0.7%5%

P10$1930.40+0.4%10%

P25$1962.97+2.1%25%

P50(Base Case)$1999.68+4.0%50%

P75$2038.53+6.0%75%

P90$2072.01+7.8%90%

P95(Bull Case)$2093.85+8.9%95%

Probability Calculator

Probability of reaching

(+5.0%)

36.7%

10,000 probabilistic scenarios

Quick targets:

10,000 simulated paths · Jump Diffusion model · As of Jul 4, 2026

AURUS Index™ Prediction Engine

LSTM Time Series

Neutral

$1,919.01

Model Accuracy: 73%Confidence: 86%

Monte Carlo 10K

Neutral

$1,924.78

Model Accuracy: 67.4%Confidence: 76%

GARCH Volatility

Neutral

$1,938.24

Model Accuracy: 64.8%Confidence: 67%

Technical Analysis

Neutral

$1,922.86

Model Accuracy: 69.3%Confidence: 51%

NLP Sentiment

Neutral

$1,926.71

Model Accuracy: 66.8%Confidence: 72%

Macro/Fundamental

Neutral

$1,924.78

Model Accuracy: 70.5%Confidence: 88%

COT Positioning

Neutral

$1,938.24

Model Accuracy: 66.4%Confidence: 76%

Disclaimer: AURUS AI provides AI-generated market analysis for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Terms · Privacy

Palladium — Real-time precious metals intelligence

Palladium

Palladium: The Catalyst Metal

Palladium Market Ratios & Auto Metrics

Seasonal Patterns

Average Monthly Return

Current Month vs Historical

Annual Performance Heatmap

Macro Analysis

Real Rates (10Y TIPS)

Dollar Index (DXY)

Inflation

Monetary Policy

ETF Flows

Central Bank Buying

Yield Curve

Correlations

Supply & Demand

Premium Feature

COT Positioning

Net Position

Position History (52 weeks)

Trader Breakdown

Contrarian Signal

Speculator Sentiment

Geopolitical Impact on Palladium

GARCH Volatility Model

Volatility History & Forecast

Volatility Term Structure

Expected Daily Range

Technical Analysis

Category Weights

Analysis Summary

No Signal Generated

Technical Analysis — Timeline

Monte Carlo Simulation

Prediction Cone

Price Distribution

Percentiles

AURUS Index™ Prediction Engine

LSTM Time Series

Monte Carlo 10K

GARCH Volatility

Technical Analysis

NLP Sentiment

Macro/Fundamental

COT Positioning