Palladium

    Real-time precious metals intelligence

    ◆XAU$4,674.60↑1.33%◆XAG$82.46↑2.15%◆XPT$1,848.15↓0.55%◆XPD$1,922.79↑0.86%◆BTC$67,264↓0.21%◆US10Y4.31%↓0.02%◆DXY$120.885↑0.50%◆XAU$4,674.60↑1.33%◆XAG$82.46↑2.15%◆XPT$1,848.15↓0.55%◆XPD$1,922.79↑0.86%◆BTC$67,264↓0.21%◆US10Y4.31%↓0.02%◆DXY$120.885↑0.50%

    Palladium — Real-time precious metals intelligence

    Palladium

    XPD/USD

    $1,922.98

    +$15.79 (+0.83%)

    24h High

    $1,938.55

    24h Low

    $1,907.78

    Open

    $1,907.06

    24h Change

    +0.83%

    7d Change

    -1.23%

    Market Cap

    $654B

    24h Change

    +0.83%

    7d Change

    -1.23%

    30d Change

    +3.45%

    YTD

    +15.60%

    24h High

    $1,938.55

    24h Low

    $1,907.78

    Palladium Market Ratios & Auto Metrics

    Palladium/Platinum Ratio

    1.0x

    Substitution risk indicator

    Auto Catalyst Demand %

    80.00%

    Gasoline vehicle dependency

    Recycling Supply %

    30.00%

    Growing secondary source

    Global EV Penetration %

    18.50%

    Long-term demand erosion risk

    Seasonal Patterns

    Average Monthly Return

    Current Month vs Historical

    Historical Avg

    -0.8%

    May • 20Y average

    Current Month

    -1.1%

    May 2026

    vs Average

    -0.3%

    Below historical average

    Palladium in May has averaged -0.8% over the past 20Y.

    Annual Performance Heatmap

    Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
    2016
    +1
    -1.1
    +0.3
    +2.6
    +0.1
    -0.3
    +1.4
    -3.3
    +3.2
    -0.8
    +0.9
    +0.6
    2017
    +3.3
    -1.8
    -0.4
    +4.9
    -0.7
    -1.1
    +0.7
    -1
    +2.5
    -1.5
    +0.2
    +2.9
    2018
    +2.6
    -2.5
    +1.8
    +4.1
    -1.4
    -1.8
    +3
    -1.7
    +1.8
    -2.2
    +2.5
    +2.2
    2019
    +1.8
    -3.3
    +1.1
    +3.4
    -2.1
    +0.5
    +2.3
    -2.4
    +1.1
    0
    +1.7
    +1.4
    2020
    +1.1
    -1
    +0.4
    +2.7
    +0.2
    -0.2
    +1.6
    -3.1
    +3.3
    -0.7
    +1
    +0.7
    2021
    +3.4
    -1.7
    -0.3
    +5
    -0.5
    -0.9
    +0.8
    -0.9
    +2.6
    -1.4
    +0.3
    +3
    2022
    +2.7
    -2.4
    -1
    +4.3
    -1.3
    -1.7
    +3.1
    -1.6
    +1.9
    -2.1
    +2.6
    +2.3
    2023
    +2
    -3.2
    +1.2
    +3.5
    -2
    +0.6
    +2.4
    -2.3
    +1.2
    +0.2
    +1.9
    +1.5
    2024
    +1.2
    -0.9
    +0.5
    +2.8
    -2.7
    -0.1
    +1.7
    -3
    +3.5
    -0.5
    +1.1
    +0.8
    2025
    +3.5
    -1.6
    -0.2
    +2.1
    -0.4
    -0.8
    +1
    -0.8
    +2.7
    -1.3
    +0.4
    +3.1
    Strong decline
    Flat
    Strong gain

    Macro Analysis

    Economic forces driving precious metals · Source: FRED / WGC · Model 6/7

    Macro Score

    +34BUY

    Confidence: 100%

    -1000+100

    KEY DRIVERS

    1.real Rates↑ Bullish(25%)
    2.dollar Index↑ Bullish(20%)
    3.central Bank Buying↑ Bullish(15%)
    4.etf Flows↑ Bullish(12%)
    5.inflation↑ Bullish(10%)
    25%
    20%
    15%
    12%
    10%

    Real Rates (10Y TIPS)

    BUY

    1.23%

    Score: +33

    5Y: 1.45%BE 10Y: 2.89%

    Real rates declining — historically strong gold catalyst. 10Y TIPS fell 57bps from peak.

    Dollar Index (DXY)

    BUY

    98.73

    Score: +39

    MA50: 100.15MA200: 103.42RSI: 35.6

    DXY below both 50-day and 200-day MA. RSI oversold at 35.6. Weak dollar strongly supports gold.

    Inflation

    BUY

    3.2% YoY

    Score: +24

    PCE Core: 2.8%⚠ Above 2% target

    Inflation persistent above 2% target. Gold benefits as inflation hedge. PCE Core at 2.8%.

    Monetary Policy

    BUY

    4.25-4.50%

    Score: +30

    Cut prob.62%
    Next FOMC2026-05-06
    ECB / BOJ2.5% / 0.5%

    Markets price 62% chance of rate cut at next meeting. Lower rates reduce opportunity cost of gold.

    ETF Flows

    BUY
    Gold ETFs+63.8t
    Silver ETFs+22.3t
    ETF AUM Holdings 7D 30D YTD
    GLD $89.5B 892.3t +12.4t +48.2t +245t
    IAU $32.1B 320.5t +3.8t +15.6t +78t
    SLV $14.2B 14,250t +5.1t +22.3t +95t
    PPLT $1.8B 28.4t +0.3t +1.2t +5.5t

    Strong ETF inflows — $63.8t gold inflows in 30 days. GLD AUM at $89.5B. Institutional conviction.

    Central Bank Buying

    BUY

    2024

    1,045t

    2025

    1,120t

    YTD 2026

    198t

    Q Avg

    265t

    pre-22: 125t

    TOP BUYERS (YTD)

    China (PBOC)
    62t+12t
    India (RBI)
    28t+5t
    Turkey (CBRT)
    22t-3t
    Poland (NBP)
    18t+2t
    Czech Republic (CNB)
    8t+1t
    Singapore (MAS)
    6t+4t

    Central banks bought 1,120t in 2025 (vs 125t pre-2022 avg). De-dollarization accelerating.

    Yield Curve

    ⚠ INVERTEDBUY
    10Y-2Y: 42bps10Y-3M: -15bpsTrend: steepening
    Actual Normal Inverted

    Correlations

    Palladium vs Real Rates
    -0.82Strong Inverse
    Palladium vs DXY
    -0.68Moderate Inverse
    Palladium vs Inflation
    +0.45Moderate
    Palladium vs S&P 500
    -0.15Weak Inverse
    Palladium vs VIX
    +0.32Weak

    Supply & Demand

    BUY

    Annual Supply

    210t

    + 80t recycled

    Annual Demand

    310t

    Deficit: 20t

    Jewelry28%
    Investment12%
    Central Banks0%
    Technology60%

    Supply deficit of 20 tonnes. Mining supply flat.

    Source: FRED (Federal Reserve) · World Gold Council · As of May 22, 2026

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    COT Positioning

    CFTC Commitment of Traders — Report: 2026-03-28 · Source: CFTC · Model 7/7

    COT Score

    -24SELL
    -1000+100

    Confidence: 40%

    Net Position

    Historical Percentile
    ◄ ShortNeutralLong ►

    Position History (52 weeks)

    Managed Money Net Price Extremes

    Trader Breakdown

    OI: 32,400(-2,800)
    🏦 Managed Money (Hedge Funds)
    Net Short-1,600-3,200 this week
    Long Contracts: 8,20055.6% of OIShort Contracts: 9,800
    🏛️ Swap Dealers (Banks)
    Net Short-4,300-500 this week
    Long Contracts: 2,10026.2% of OIShort Contracts: 6,400
    🏭 Producers / Merchants
    Net Short-2,400+200 this week
    Long Contracts: 1,80018.5% of OIShort Contracts: 4,200
    📊 Other Reportables
    Net Long+1,900+300 this week
    Long Contracts: 3,10013.3% of OIShort Contracts: 1,200
    👤 Non-Reportable (Small Traders)
    Net Long+2,400
    Long Contracts: 5,80028.4% of OIShort Contracts: 3,400

    Net Position % OI

    -4.94%

    Weekly Change

    -3,200

    Trend

    increasing shorts

    Historical Percentile

    32nd

    Contrarian Signal

    No extreme positioning detected. Positioning within normal range (32nd percentile).

    Speculator Sentiment

    Longs46%
    Shorts54%

    Report Date

    2026-03-28

    Spread

    1,800

    Source: CFTC Commitment of Traders · Report: 2026-03-28

    Geopolitical Impact on Palladium

    Model 5/7

    Current outlook

    Bullish (+146)

    Confidence

    27%

    Risk Level

    84/100

    Key drivers

    •Eurozone Peripheral Debt Concerns Re-emerge Amid Fiscal Divergence(7.2)
    •South African Mining Labor Strikes Shut Down Major PGM Operations(8.0)
    •Fed Declines Pivot Despite Slowing Growth; Real Rates Remain Elevated(6.5)

    GARCH Volatility Model

    Model 3/70ms
    Volatility RegimeNORMAL

    Calm 2%

    Normal 53%

    Turbulent 45%

    Crisis 0%

    Regime changed from TURBULENT → NORMAL (5d ago)
    Persistence: 0.97Half-Life: 21.4 daysCurrent: 16.6%Long-run: 15.1%

    Volatility History & Forecast

    Volatility Term Structure

    Expected Daily Range

    +2σ
    $1,964.42
    +1σ
    $1,944.26
    Current
    $1,924.10
    -1σ
    $1,903.94
    -2σ
    $1,883.78

    68% chance within $1,903.94 - $1,944.26

    95% chance within $1,883.78 - $1,964.42

    Volatility model · Based on 252 trading days · As of May 22, 2026

    Technical Analysis

    -10
    NeutralConfidence: 60%
    ▲ 5 Buy● 4 Neutral▼ 8 Sell

    Support

    $1917.25

    Pivot Point

    $1926.96

    Resistance

    $1933.79

    Category Weights

    Moving Averages30%
    -68
    Momentum30%
    +38
    Bands & Channels15%
    +15
    Volume10%
    -38
    Patterns Detected15%
    +0

    Analysis Summary

    Technical analysis is mixed. Indicators are divided, suggesting caution. Composite score: -10/100, confidence: 60%.

    ▲ Top Bullish: RSI(14), CCI(20), Stochastic(14,3)

    ▼ Top Bearish: MA Crossovers, ADX(14), Ichimoku Cloud

    Score: -10/100Confidence: 60%17 indicators analyzed

    No Signal Generated

    Conditions not met to generate a reliable trading signal

    ✗Score must be above +40 or below -40|-10| = 10≥ 40
    ✓Confidence must be above 50%60%≥ 50%
    ✗Indicator alignment must be above 60%47% (8/17)≥ 60%
    IndicatorValueSignalScore
    MA Crossovers
    Below all MAs
    Strong Sell
    -75
    ADX(14)
    39.4 (Strong)
    Strong Sell
    -70
    Parabolic SAR
    $1948.44
    Strong Sell
    -60
    Ichimoku Cloud
    Below Cloud
    Strong Sell
    -65
    RSI(14)
    16.8
    Strong Buy
    +80
    MACD(12,26,9)
    -8.13
    Sell
    -40
    Stochastic(14,3)
    %K: 4.8 / %D: 4.1
    Strong Buy
    +70
    Williams %R(14)
    -90.5
    Buy
    +50
    CCI(20)
    -203
    Strong Buy
    +80
    ROC(12)
    -1.57%
    Neutral
    -13
    Bollinger Bands
    %B: -13.2%
    Strong Buy
    +60
    ATR(14)
    $5.91 (0.31%)
    Neutral
    +0
    Keltner Squeeze
    No Squeeze
    Neutral
    +0
    HV(20)
    2.3%
    Neutral
    +0
    OBV Trend
    513.2K
    Sell
    -40
    Volume Ratio
    1.65x
    Sell
    -40
    A/D Line
    -318.9K
    Sell
    -35

    Technical Analysis — Timeline

    20
    Neutral-103M
    May 15, 10:32 PM
    Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $1925.68
    Neutral-103M
    May 12, 09:00 AM
    Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $1925.45
    Neutral-103M
    May 11, 09:30 PM
    Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $1925.72
    Neutral-103M
    May 11, 02:11 AM
    Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $2384.75
    Neutral-103M
    May 11, 01:34 AM
    Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $1925.75
    Neutral-103M
    May 8, 09:32 PM
    Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $2234.78
    Neutral-103M
    May 1, 08:32 PM
    Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $1926.91
    Neutral-103M
    Apr 24, 07:32 PM
    Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $2126.91
    Neutral-103M
    Apr 22, 10:39 AM
    Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $2008.94
    Neutral-103M
    Apr 22, 09:22 AM
    Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $2009.36
    Neutral-103M
    Apr 22, 09:22 AM
    Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $2009.36
    Neutral-103M
    Apr 17, 06:31 PM
    Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $1925.64
    Neutral-103M
    Apr 10, 05:31 PM
    Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $1925.13
    Neutral-103M
    Apr 6, 05:24 AM
    Confidence: 60%Pivot Point: $2125.32
    Neutral+103M
    Apr 5, 03:48 PM
    Confidence: 63%Pivot Point: $2030.31
    Neutral+103M
    Apr 5, 03:48 PM
    Confidence: 63%Pivot Point: $2030.31
    Neutral+103M
    Apr 5, 08:55 AM
    Confidence: 63%Pivot Point: $2030.31
    Neutral+103M
    Apr 4, 09:58 AM
    Confidence: 63%Pivot Point: $2030.31
    Neutral+103M
    Apr 4, 05:57 AM
    Confidence: 63%Pivot Point: $2030.31
    Neutral+103M
    Apr 4, 05:57 AM
    Confidence: 63%Pivot Point: $2030.31

    Based on synthetic daily closing prices · Indicators as of May 22, 2026

    Monte Carlo Simulation

    Model 2/710,000 paths
    BuyScore: +59 | Confidence: 79%30D horizon • Jump Diffusion (Merton) • Computed in 899ms

    Probability Up

    82.3%

    Probability Down

    17.7%

    Expected Return

    +4.07%

    Value at Risk (95%)

    $58.39

    Mean

    $2002.36

    Median

    $2000.74

    Std Dev

    $84.03

    Skewness

    0.100

    Kurtosis

    0.016

    Expected Shortfall

    $90.23

    Computed in 899ms

    Prediction Cone

    Price Distribution

    Percentiles

    PercentilePriceReturnProb
    P5(Bear Case)$1865.69-3.0%5%
    P10$1896.10-1.5%10%
    P25$1945.50+1.1%25%
    P50(Base Case)$2000.74+4.0%50%
    P75$2058.14+7.0%75%
    P90$2110.53+9.7%90%
    P95(Bull Case)$2143.47+11.4%95%
    Probability Calculator
    Probability of reaching
    $
    (+5.0%)
    40.7%

    10,000 probabilistic scenarios

    Quick targets:

    10,000 simulated paths · Jump Diffusion model · As of May 22, 2026

    AURUS Index™ Prediction Engine

    LSTM Time Series

    Neutral

    $1,930.09

    Model Accuracy: 73%Confidence: 86%

    Monte Carlo 10K

    Neutral

    $1,926.24

    Model Accuracy: 67.4%Confidence: 76%

    GARCH Volatility

    Neutral

    $1,949.34

    Model Accuracy: 64.8%Confidence: 67%

    Technical Analysis

    Neutral

    $1,933.94

    Model Accuracy: 69.3%Confidence: 51%

    NLP Sentiment

    Neutral

    $1,930.09

    Model Accuracy: 66.8%Confidence: 72%

    Macro/Fundamental

    Neutral

    $1,920.47

    Model Accuracy: 70.5%Confidence: 88%

    COT Positioning

    Neutral

    $1,930.09

    Model Accuracy: 66.4%Confidence: 76%

    Disclaimer: AURUS AI provides AI-generated market analysis for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Terms · Privacy