Why is platinum cheaper than gold despite being rarer?

Platinum's price fell below gold in 2015 due to the Volkswagen diesel emissions scandal, which damaged demand for diesel catalytic converters — platinum's largest industrial use. Since then, reduced automotive demand, concentrated supply risks in South Africa, and gold's surge as a safe-haven asset have maintained this unusual pricing inversion.

How does hydrogen energy affect platinum demand?

Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) electrolysers used in green hydrogen production require platinum-group metal catalysts. As governments worldwide invest in hydrogen infrastructure — the EU REPowerEU plan targets 10 million tonnes of domestic green hydrogen by 2030 — platinum demand from this sector could grow substantially.

What indicators matter most for platinum trading?

Key platinum indicators include the Platinum/Gold ratio (currently near historic lows), the Platinum/Palladium substitution ratio, South African rand strength, Eskom load-shedding schedules affecting mining output, NYMEX futures positioning from weekly COT reports, and global manufacturing PMI data.

Platinum — Real-time precious metals intelligence

Platinum

XPT/USD

$4,099.22

+$49.07 (+1.21%)

24h High

$4,120.20

24h Low

$4,029.85

Open

$4,049.56

24h Change

+1.21%

7d Change

+18.87%

Market Cap

$1.1T

Geopolitical Impact on Platinum

Model 5/7

Current outlook

Bullish (+288)

Confidence

30%

Risk Level

78/100

Key drivers

•EU Enacts Strict Subsidies for Domestic Solar Silver Use(6.2)

•Russia Imposes Export Quotas on PGM Group Metals(8.8)

•Hormuz Strait Tensions Trigger Oil Spike(7.5)

24h Change

+1.21%

7d Change

+18.87%

30d Change

+71.41%

YTD

+121.89%

24h High

$4,120.20

24h Low

$4,029.85

Platinum Market Ratios & Supply Metrics

Platinum/Gold Ratio

0.3x

Near multi-decade lows — signals undervaluation

Platinum/Palladium Ratio

0.9x

Substitution dynamics in catalysts

South Africa Supply %

70.00%

Geographic concentration risk

Hydrogen Demand %

8.20%

PEM electrolyser growth driver

Seasonal Patterns

Average Monthly Return

Current Month vs Historical

Historical Avg

+0.7%

Jul • 20Y average

Current Month

+1.7%

Jul 2026

vs Average

+1.0%

Above historical average

Platinum in Jul has averaged +0.7% over the past 20Y.

Annual Performance Heatmap

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2016	+0.3	-0.1	-1.3	+1.2	+0.9	+1	+0.6	-2.7	+2.4	-0.1	+0.1	-0.2
2017	+2.6	-0.8	-2	+3.5	+0.1	+0.2	-0.1	-0.4	+1.7	-0.8	-0.6	+2.1
2018	+1.9	-1.5	+0.2	+2.7	-0.6	-0.5	+2.2	-1.1	+1	-1.5	+1.7	+1.4
2019	+1.1	-2.3	-0.5	+2	-1.3	+1.8	+1.5	-1.8	+0.3	+0.7	+0.9	+0.6
2020	+0.4	0	-1.2	+1.3	+1	+1.1	+0.8	-2.5	+2.5	0	+0.2	-0.1
2021	+2.7	-0.7	-1.9	+3.6	+0.3	+0.4	0	-0.3	+1.8	-0.7	-0.5	+2.2
2022	+2	-1.4	-2.6	+2.9	-0.5	-0.4	+2.3	-1	+1.1	-1.4	+1.8	+1.5
2023	+1.3	-2.2	-0.4	+2.1	-1.2	+1.9	+1.6	-1.7	+0.4	+0.9	+1.1	+0.7
2024	+0.5	+0.1	-1.1	+1.4	-1.9	+1.2	+0.9	-2.4	+2.7	+0.2	+0.3	0
2025	+2.8	-0.6	-1.8	+0.7	+0.4	+0.5	+0.2	-0.2	+1.9	-0.6	-0.4	+2.3

Strong decline

Flat

Strong gain

COT Positioning

CFTC Commitment of Traders — Report: 2026-03-28 · Source: CFTC · Model 7/7

COT Score

-17NEUTRAL

-1000+100

Confidence: 40%

Net Position

Historical Percentile

◄ ShortNeutralLong ►

Position History (52 weeks)

Managed Money Net Price Extremes

Trader Breakdown

OI: 68,200(-1,200)

🏦 Managed Money (Hedge Funds)

Net Long+15,600-2,100 this week

Long Contracts: 28,40060.4% of OIShort Contracts: 12,800

🏛️ Swap Dealers (Banks)

Net Short-14,300+800 this week

Long Contracts: 4,20033.3% of OIShort Contracts: 18,500

🏭 Producers / Merchants

Net Short-12,100-600 this week

Long Contracts: 3,10026.8% of OIShort Contracts: 15,200

📊 Other Reportables

Net Long+3,400+400 this week

Long Contracts: 5,80012.0% of OIShort Contracts: 2,400

👤 Non-Reportable (Small Traders)

Net Long+7,400

Long Contracts: 12,50025.8% of OIShort Contracts: 5,100

Net Position % OI

22.87%

Weekly Change

-2,100

Trend

increasing shorts

Historical Percentile

45th

Contrarian Signal

No extreme positioning detected. Positioning within normal range (45th percentile).

Speculator Sentiment

Longs69%

Shorts31%

Report Date

2026-03-28

Spread

5,200

Source: CFTC Commitment of Traders · Report: 2026-03-28

Macro Analysis

Economic forces driving precious metals · Source: FRED / WGC · Model 6/7

Macro Score

+40BUY

Confidence: 100%

-1000+100

KEY DRIVERS

1.real Rates↑ Bullish(25%)

2.dollar Index↑ Bullish(20%)

3.central Bank Buying↑ Bullish(15%)

4.etf Flows↑ Bullish(12%)

5.inflation↑ Bullish(10%)

25%

20%

15%

12%

10%

Real Rates (10Y TIPS)

BUY

1.23%

Score: +39

5Y: 1.45%BE 10Y: 2.89%

Real rates declining — historically strong gold catalyst. 10Y TIPS fell 57bps from peak.

Dollar Index (DXY)

BUY

98.73

Score: +46

MA50: 100.15MA200: 103.42RSI: 35.6

DXY below both 50-day and 200-day MA. RSI oversold at 35.6. Weak dollar strongly supports gold.

Inflation

BUY

3.2% YoY

Score: +28

PCE Core: 2.8%⚠ Above 2% target

Inflation persistent above 2% target. Gold benefits as inflation hedge. PCE Core at 2.8%.

Monetary Policy

BUY

4.25-4.50%

Score: +35

Cut prob.62%

Next FOMC2026-05-06

ECB / BOJ2.5% / 0.5%

Markets price 62% chance of rate cut at next meeting. Lower rates reduce opportunity cost of gold.

ETF Flows

BUY

Gold ETFs+63.8t

Silver ETFs+22.3t

ETF	AUM	Holdings	7D	30D	YTD
GLD	$89.5B	892.3t	+12.4t	+48.2t	+245t
IAU	$32.1B	320.5t	+3.8t	+15.6t	+78t
SLV	$14.2B	14,250t	+5.1t	+22.3t	+95t
PPLT	$1.8B	28.4t	+0.3t	+1.2t	+5.5t

Strong ETF inflows — $63.8t gold inflows in 30 days. GLD AUM at $89.5B. Institutional conviction.

Central Bank Buying

BUY

2024

1,045t

2025

1,120t

YTD 2026

198t

Q Avg

265t

pre-22: 125t

TOP BUYERS (YTD)

China (PBOC)

62t+12t

India (RBI)

28t+5t

Turkey (CBRT)

22t-3t

Poland (NBP)

18t+2t

Czech Republic (CNB)

8t+1t

Singapore (MAS)

6t+4t

Central banks bought 1,120t in 2025 (vs 125t pre-2022 avg). De-dollarization accelerating.

Yield Curve

⚠ INVERTEDBUY

10Y-2Y: 42bps10Y-3M: -15bpsTrend: steepening

Actual Normal Inverted

Correlations

Platinum vs Real Rates

-0.82Strong Inverse

Platinum vs DXY

-0.68Moderate Inverse

Platinum vs Inflation

+0.45Moderate

Platinum vs S&P 500

-0.15Weak Inverse

Platinum vs VIX

+0.32Weak

Supply & Demand

BUY

Annual Supply

190t

+ 65t recycled

Annual Demand

245t

Surplus: 10t

Jewelry28%

Investment12%

Central Banks0%

Technology60%

Supply deficit of 20 tonnes. Mining supply flat.

Source: FRED (Federal Reserve) · World Gold Council · As of Jul 4, 2026

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Technical Analysis

-13

NeutralConfidence: 59%

▲ 5 Buy● 5 Neutral▼ 7 Sell

Support

$1845.01

Pivot Point

$1850.09

Resistance

$1853.46

Category Weights

Moving Averages30%

-73

Momentum30%

+27

Bands & Channels15%

+15

Volume10%

-25

Patterns Detected15%

Analysis Summary

Technical analysis is mixed. Indicators are divided, suggesting caution. Composite score: -13/100, confidence: 59%.

▲ Top Bullish: RSI(14), Bollinger Bands, Williams %R(14)

▼ Top Bearish: ADX(14), MA Crossovers, Ichimoku Cloud

Score: -13/100Confidence: 59%17 indicators analyzed

No Signal Generated

Conditions not met to generate a reliable trading signal

✗Score must be above +40 or below -40|-13| = 13≥ 40

✓Confidence must be above 50%59%≥ 50%

✗Indicator alignment must be above 60%41% (7/17)≥ 60%

IndicatorValueSignalScore

MA Crossovers

Below all MAs

Strong Sell

-75

ADX(14)

51.9 (Very Strong)

Strong Sell

-90

Parabolic SAR

$1859.10

Strong Sell

-60

Ichimoku Cloud

Below Cloud

Strong Sell

-65

RSI(14)

13.9

Strong Buy

+80

MACD(12,26,9)

-7.66

Sell

-40

Stochastic(14,3)

%K: 5.9 / %D: 5.1

Buy

+40

Williams %R(14)

-94.2

Buy

+50

CCI(20)

-158

Buy

+40

ROC(12)

-1.19%

Neutral

-10

Bollinger Bands

%B: -2.5%

Strong Buy

+60

ATR(14)

$4.31 (0.23%)

Neutral

Keltner Squeeze

No Squeeze

Neutral

HV(20)

1.0%

Neutral

OBV Trend

235.3K

Sell

-40

Volume Ratio

1.39x

Neutral

A/D Line

-460.5K

Sell

-35

Technical Analysis — Timeline

Neutral-133M

Jun 27, 04:31 AM

Confidence: 59%Pivot Point: $1848.93

Neutral-133M

Jun 26, 03:47 AM

Confidence: 59%Pivot Point: $1849.30

Neutral-133M

Jun 26, 03:47 AM

Confidence: 59%Pivot Point: $3363.78

Neutral-133M

Jun 21, 10:32 AM

Confidence: 59%Pivot Point: $2847.46

Neutral-133M

Jun 20, 03:31 AM

Confidence: 59%Pivot Point: $2730.32

Neutral-133M

Jun 17, 04:31 AM

Confidence: 59%Pivot Point: $1941.27

Neutral-133M

Jun 16, 01:52 AM

Confidence: 59%Pivot Point: $2455.51

Neutral-133M

Jun 13, 02:32 AM

Confidence: 59%Pivot Point: $1849.84

Neutral-133M

Jun 6, 01:32 AM

Confidence: 59%Pivot Point: $1849.34

Neutral-133M

Jun 2, 01:33 PM

Confidence: 59%Pivot Point: $1941.27

Neutral-133M

May 30, 12:31 AM

Confidence: 59%Pivot Point: $2056.89

Neutral-133M

May 22, 11:32 PM

Confidence: 59%Pivot Point: $2580.98

Neutral-133M

May 15, 10:32 PM

Confidence: 59%Pivot Point: $1849.90

Neutral-133M

May 12, 02:18 AM

Confidence: 59%Pivot Point: $1849.35

Neutral-133M

May 11, 01:58 AM

Confidence: 59%Pivot Point: $1848.71

Neutral-133M

May 10, 09:40 PM

Confidence: 59%Pivot Point: $1849.69

Neutral-133M

May 8, 09:31 PM

Confidence: 59%Pivot Point: $1849.90

Neutral-133M

May 1, 08:31 PM

Confidence: 59%Pivot Point: $1849.78

Neutral-133M

Apr 24, 07:31 PM

Confidence: 59%Pivot Point: $1849.60

Neutral-133M

Apr 22, 10:39 AM

Confidence: 59%Pivot Point: $1912.95

Based on synthetic daily closing prices · Indicators as of Jul 4, 2026

Monte Carlo Simulation

Model 2/710,000 paths

Strong BuyScore: +60 | Confidence: 84%30D horizon • Jump Diffusion (Merton) • Computed in 487ms

Probability Up

84.5%

Probability Down

15.5%

Expected Return

+3.17%

Value at Risk (95%)

$39.91

Mean

$1906.91

Median

$1905.71

Std Dev

$62.66

Skewness

0.245

Kurtosis

1.196

Expected Shortfall

$71.92

Computed in 487ms

Prediction Cone

Price Distribution

Percentiles

PercentilePriceReturnProb

P5(Bear Case)$1808.46-2.2%5%

P10$1831.62-0.9%10%

P25$1868.41+1.1%25%

P50(Base Case)$1905.71+3.1%50%

P75$1943.55+5.1%75%

P90$1982.90+7.3%90%

P95(Bull Case)$2012.08+8.9%95%

Probability Calculator

Probability of reaching

(+5.0%)

26.3%

10,000 probabilistic scenarios

Quick targets:

10,000 simulated paths · Jump Diffusion model · As of Jul 4, 2026

GARCH Volatility Model

Model 3/71ms

Volatility RegimeTURBULENT

Calm 0%

Normal 72%

Turbulent 28%

Crisis 0%

Persistence: 0.94Half-Life: 11.4 daysCurrent: 13.1%Long-run: 9%

Volatility History & Forecast

Volatility Term Structure

Expected Daily Range

+2σ

$1,878.86

+1σ

$1,863.56

Current

$1,848.26

-1σ

$1,832.96

-2σ

$1,817.66

68% chance within $1,832.96 - $1,863.56

95% chance within $1,817.66 - $1,878.86

Volatility model · Based on 252 trading days · As of Jul 4, 2026

AURUS Index™ Prediction Engine

LSTM Time Series

Neutral

$4,140.38

Model Accuracy: 73.1%Confidence: 63%

Monte Carlo 10K

Bullish

$4,164.98

Model Accuracy: 71.3%Confidence: 90%

GARCH Volatility

Neutral

$4,111.69

Model Accuracy: 67%Confidence: 70%

Technical Analysis

Neutral

$4,132.19

Model Accuracy: 68%Confidence: 67%

NLP Sentiment

Neutral

$4,074.79

Model Accuracy: 67%Confidence: 55%

Macro/Fundamental

Bullish

$4,283.86

Model Accuracy: 69.7%Confidence: 88%

COT Positioning

Bullish

$4,283.86

Model Accuracy: 62.4%Confidence: 81%

Disclaimer: AURUS AI provides AI-generated market analysis for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Terms · Privacy

Platinum — Real-time precious metals intelligence

Platinum

Platinum: The Rarest Precious Metal

Geopolitical Impact on Platinum

Platinum Market Ratios & Supply Metrics

Seasonal Patterns

Average Monthly Return

Current Month vs Historical

Annual Performance Heatmap

COT Positioning

Net Position

Position History (52 weeks)

Trader Breakdown

Contrarian Signal

Speculator Sentiment

Macro Analysis

Real Rates (10Y TIPS)

Dollar Index (DXY)

Inflation

Monetary Policy

ETF Flows

Central Bank Buying

Yield Curve

Correlations

Supply & Demand

Premium Feature

Technical Analysis

Category Weights

Analysis Summary

No Signal Generated

Technical Analysis — Timeline

Monte Carlo Simulation

Prediction Cone

Price Distribution

Percentiles

GARCH Volatility Model

Volatility History & Forecast

Volatility Term Structure

Expected Daily Range

AURUS Index™ Prediction Engine

LSTM Time Series

Monte Carlo 10K

GARCH Volatility

Technical Analysis

NLP Sentiment

Macro/Fundamental

COT Positioning