Macro Analysis
Economic forces driving precious metals · Source: FRED / WGC · Model 6/7
Macro Score
Confidence: 78%
KEY DRIVERS
Real Rates (10Y TIPS)
1.23%
Score: +65
Real rates declining — historically strong gold catalyst. 10Y TIPS fell 57bps from peak.
Dollar Index (DXY)
98.73
Score: +75
DXY below both 50-day and 200-day MA. RSI oversold at 35.6. Weak dollar strongly supports gold.
Inflation
3.2% YoY
Score: +50
Inflation persistent above 2% target. Gold benefits as inflation hedge. PCE Core at 2.8%.
Monetary Policy
4.25-4.50%
Score: +60
Markets price 62% chance of rate cut at next meeting. Lower rates reduce opportunity cost of gold.
ETF Flows
| ETF | AUM | Holdings | 7D | 30D | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | $89.5B | 892.3t | +12.4t | +48.2t | +245t |
| IAU | $32.1B | 320.5t | +3.8t | +15.6t | +78t |
| SLV | $14.2B | 14,250t | +5.1t | +22.3t | +95t |
| PPLT | $1.8B | 28.4t | +0.3t | +1.2t | +5.5t |
Strong ETF inflows — $63.8t gold inflows in 30 days. GLD AUM at $89.5B. Institutional conviction.
Central Bank Buying
2024
1,045t
2025
1,120t
YTD 2026
198t
Q Avg
265t
pre-22: 125t
TOP BUYERS (YTD)
Central banks bought 1,120t in 2025 (vs 125t pre-2022 avg). De-dollarization accelerating.
Yield Curve
Correlations
Supply & Demand
Annual Supply
3,644t
+ 1,240t recycled
Annual Demand
5,320t
Deficit: 436t
Supply deficit of 436 tonnes. Mining supply flat.
Source: FRED (Federal Reserve) · World Gold Council · As of May 22, 2026
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