--- title: "Silver Price & AI Prediction — XAG/USD Live | AURUS AI" description: "Live silver price, XAG/USD analysis, AI predictions and COT positioning. Track silver with 7 AI models and geopolitical risk scoring." lang: en json-ld: | [ { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Organization", "name": "AURUS AI", "url": "https://aurusinsight.com", "logo": "https://aurusinsight.com/logo.png", "description": "AI-powered precious metals intelligence platform with 7 prediction models", "sameAs": [ "https://t.me/AurusSignals" ] }, { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "FinancialProduct", "name": "Silver Spot Price", "description": "Live Silver Spot Price (XAG/USD) analysis with AI-powered predictions, technical indicators, and trading signals by Aurus Insight.", "url": "https://aurusinsight.com/en/silver", "provider": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Aurus Insight", "url": "https://aurusinsight.com" }, "category": "Precious Metals" }, { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "FAQPage", "mainEntity": [ { "@type": "Question", "name": "Why is silver more volatile than gold?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "Silver typically exhibits 1.5-2x the daily volatility of gold due to its dual nature as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity. About 50% of annual silver demand comes from industrial applications — electronics, solar panels, medical devices — making it sensitive to manufacturing cycles alongside monetary factors." } }, { "@type": "Question", "name": "How does solar energy affect silver demand?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "Each standard solar panel requires approximately 20 grams of silver paste for its conductive layers. With global solar installations growing at double-digit rates, solar demand alone could absorb over 20% of annual silver mine production by 2030, creating a structural supply deficit that supports higher prices." } }, { "@type": "Question", "name": "What indicators matter most for silver trading?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "Key silver indicators include the Gold/Silver ratio, industrial PMI data, solar installation forecasts, COMEX COT positioning, the US Dollar Index, and real interest rates. Aurus Insight tracks all these factors across 7 AI models to generate a composite silver score updated in real time." } } ] }, { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://aurusinsight.com/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Silver Price & AI Prediction — XAG/USD Live | AURUS AI", "item": "https://aurusinsight.com/en/silver" } ] } ] --- AURUS AI Precious Metals Intelligence [Dashboard ](/en/dashboard) Predictions Metals [Gold ](/en/gold)[Silver](/en/silver) [Platinum ](/en/platinum)[Palladium ](/en/palladium) [Track Record ](/en/track-record)[Academy ](/en/academy)[Pricing ](/en/pricing) [Sign In ](/en/auth) AURUS Index™ 67 BULLISH BUY Geo Risk 84 Extreme ## Silver Real-time precious metals intelligence $ USD 🇬🇧 EN Sign In ◆ XAU $58,589.96 ↑2.20% ◆ XAG $842.61 ↑6.15% ◆ XPT $17,478.54 ↑2.90% ◆ XPD $19,370.56 ↑4.27% ◆ BTC $67,264 ↓0.21% ◆ US10Y 4.31% ↓0.02% ◆ DXY $120.885 ↑0.50% ◆ XAU $58,589.96 ↑2.20% ◆ XAG $842.61 ↑6.15% ◆ XPT $17,478.54 ↑2.90% ◆ XPD $19,370.56 ↑4.27% ◆ BTC $67,264 ↓0.21% ◆ US10Y 4.31% ↓0.02% ◆ DXY $120.885 ↑0.50% # Silver Market Analysis & AI Predictions Gold Platinum ## Silver XAG/USD $842.89 +$48.82 (+6.15%) 24h High $843.32 24h Low $805.37 Open $791.07 24h Change +6.15% 7d Change +30.64% Market Cap $48.0T ## The Dual Nature of Silver In-Depth Analysis Candlestick 1D1W1M3M6M1Y5YMAX 📐 Indicators ⊕Compare [](https://www.tradingview.com/?utm_medium=lwc-link&utm_campaign=lwc-chart&utm_source=aurus-insight-hub.lovable.app/en/silver "Charting by TradingView") RSI(14): 76.9 MACD: ↑ Bullish SMA(50): $81.88 BB: Width: 1.1% 24h Change +6.15% 7d Change +30.64% 30d Change +172.39% YTD +921.78% 24h High $843.32 24h Low $805.37 ## Silver Market Ratios & Industrial Demand Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0x Inverse of G/S — higher = silver outperforming Gold/Silver Ratio 69.5x \>80 = silver undervalued historically Industrial Demand % 55.30% Solar + electronics + EV growth Supply Deficit (Moz) \-176.0x Structural deficit since 2021 ## Seasonal Patterns 10Y20Y50Y ### Average Monthly Return ### Current Month vs Historical Historical Avg \-0.8% Aug • 20Y average Current Month \-0.6% Aug 2026 vs Average +0.2% Above historical average Silver in Aug has averaged -0.8% over the past 20Y. ### Annual Performance Heatmap Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 +1.7 \-0.4 \-1.6 +0.5 +0.7 +3 +2.4 \-2.4 +4.1 \-1.3 +1 \-0.6 2017 +4 \-1.1 \-2.3 +2.8 \-0.1 +2.2 +1.7 \-0.1 +3.4 \-2 +0.3 +1.7 2018 +3.3 \-1.8 \-0.1 +2 \-0.8 +1.5 +4 \-0.8 +2.7 \-2.7 +2.6 +1 2019 +2.5 \-2.6 \-0.8 +1.3 \-1.5 +3.8 +3.3 \-1.5 +2 \-0.5 +1.8 +0.2 2020 +1.8 \-0.3 \-1.5 +0.6 +0.8 +3.1 +2.6 \-2.2 +4.2 \-1.2 +1.1 \-0.5 2021 +4.1 \-1 \-2.2 +2.9 +0.1 +2.4 +1.8 0 +3.5 \-1.9 +0.4 +1.8 2022 +3.4 \-1.7 \-2.9 +2.2 \-0.7 +1.6 +4.1 \-0.7 +2.8 \-2.6 +2.7 +1.1 2023 +2.7 \-2.4 \-0.7 +1.4 \-1.4 +3.9 +3.4 \-1.4 +2.1 \-0.3 +2 +0.4 2024 +1.9 \-0.2 \-1.4 +0.7 \-2.1 +3.2 +2.7 \-2.1 +4.4 \-1 +1.2 \-0.4 2025 +4.2 \-0.9 \-2.1 0 +0.2 +2.5 +2 +0.1 +3.6 \-1.8 +0.5 +1.9 Strong decline Flat Strong gain ## GARCH Volatility Model Model 3/7 0ms Volatility Regime TURBULENT Calm 23% Normal 33% Turbulent 43% Crisis 0% Persistence: 0.99 Half-Life: 69 days Current: 23% Long-run: 13.6% ### Volatility History & Forecast ### Volatility Term Structure ### Expected Daily Range +2σ $867.28 +1σ $855.07 Current $842.87 \-1σ $830.67 \-2σ $818.46 68% chance within $830.67 - $855.07 95% chance within $818.46 - $867.28 Volatility model · Based on 252 trading days · As of Aug 22, 2026 ## Technical Analysis 1D1W1M3M6M1Y +14 Neutral Confidence: 61% ▲ 7 Buy ● 5 Neutral ▼ 5 Sell Support $82.35 Pivot Point $82.44 Resistance $82.55 ### Category Weights Moving Averages 30% +68 Momentum 30% \-23 Bands & Channels 15% \-15 Volume 10% +25 Patterns Detected 15% +0 #### Analysis Summary Technical analysis is mixed. Indicators are divided, suggesting caution. Composite score: 14/100, confidence: 61%. ▲ Top Bullish: MA Crossovers, ADX(14), Ichimoku Cloud ▼ Top Bearish: Bollinger Bands, RSI(14), Williams %R(14) Score: +14 /100 Confidence: 61% 17 indicators analyzed ### No Signal Generated Conditions not met to generate a reliable trading signal ✗ Score must be above +40 or below -40 |14| = 14 ≥ 40 ✓ Confidence must be above 50% 61% ≥ 50% ✗ Indicator alignment must be above 60% 41% (7/17) ≥ 60% Indicator Value Signal Score MA Crossovers Above all MAs Strong Buy +75 ADX(14) 38.5 (Strong) Strong Buy +70 Parabolic SAR $81.80 Strong Buy +60 Ichimoku Cloud Above Cloud Strong Buy +65 RSI(14) 76.9 Sell \-50 MACD(12,26,9) 0.18 Buy +40 Stochastic(14,3) %K: 92.3 / %D: 93.8 Sell \-40 Williams %R(14) \-6.0 Sell \-50 CCI(20) 156 Sell \-40 ROC(12) +0.65% Neutral +4 Bollinger Bands %B: 101.3% Strong Sell \-60 ATR(14) $0.14 (0.17%) Neutral +0 Keltner Squeeze No Squeeze Neutral +0 HV(20) 0.8% Neutral +0 OBV Trend 639.3K Buy +40 Volume Ratio 0.66x Neutral +0 A/D Line \-250.4K Buy +35 #### Technical Analysis — Timeline 20 Neutral +15 3M Aug 20, 07:37 PM Confidence: 61% Pivot Point: $767.27 Neutral +19 1D Aug 20, 02:48 PM Confidence: 58% Pivot Point: $766.31 Neutral +14 3M Aug 20, 02:47 PM Confidence: 61% Pivot Point: $82.46 Neutral +14 3M Aug 20, 10:33 AM Confidence: 61% Pivot Point: $82.44 Neutral +14 3M Aug 20, 04:12 AM Confidence: 61% Pivot Point: $82.44 Neutral +14 3M Aug 20, 01:54 AM Confidence: 61% Pivot Point: $82.43 Neutral +19 1D Aug 19, 10:20 AM Confidence: 58% Pivot Point: $735.68 Neutral +14 3M Aug 19, 10:18 AM Confidence: 61% Pivot Point: $82.42 Neutral +14 1W Aug 19, 07:15 AM Confidence: 75% Pivot Point: $733.36 Neutral +19 1D Aug 19, 07:15 AM Confidence: 58% Pivot Point: $733.30 Neutral +14 3M Aug 19, 07:14 AM Confidence: 61% Pivot Point: $82.40 Neutral +14 3M Aug 19, 07:03 AM Confidence: 61% Pivot Point: $82.46 Neutral +14 3M Aug 19, 04:00 AM Confidence: 61% Pivot Point: $82.46 Neutral +14 3M Aug 18, 10:13 AM Confidence: 61% Pivot Point: $82.47 Neutral +14 3M Aug 18, 04:19 AM Confidence: 61% Pivot Point: $82.47 Neutral +14 3M Aug 18, 04:12 AM Confidence: 61% Pivot Point: $82.45 Neutral +14 3M Aug 18, 03:54 AM Confidence: 61% Pivot Point: $82.46 Neutral +14 3M Aug 18, 03:39 AM Confidence: 61% Pivot Point: $82.43 Neutral +19 1D Aug 18, 03:34 AM Confidence: 58% Pivot Point: $699.42 Neutral +9 1W Aug 18, 03:33 AM Confidence: 72% Pivot Point: $699.47 Based on synthetic daily closing prices · Indicators as of Aug 22, 2026 ## Monte Carlo Simulation Model 2/7 10,000 paths 7D14D30D60D90D Buy Score: +45 | Confidence: 79% 30D horizon • Jump Diffusion (Merton) • Computed in 174ms Probability Up 77.4% Probability Down 22.6% Expected Return +3.13% Value at Risk (95%) $2.97 Mean $85.05 Median $84.92 Std Dev $3.56 Skewness 0.261 Kurtosis 0.677 Expected Shortfall $4.52 Computed in 174ms ### Prediction Cone Hide Trajectories ### Price Distribution ### Percentiles Percentile Price Return Prob P5(Bear Case) $79.50 \-3.6% 5% P10 $80.70 \-2.1% 10% P25 $82.72 +0.3% 25% P50(Base Case) $84.92 +3.0% 50% P75 $87.24 +5.8% 75% P90 $89.50 +8.5% 90% P95(Bull Case) $91.14 +10.5% 95% Probability Calculator Probability of reaching $ (+5.5%) 27.3% 10,000 probabilistic scenarios Quick targets: $78 98% $80 93% $85 49% $87 27% $91 5% $95 1% Simulation Settings 10,000 simulated paths · Jump Diffusion model · As of Aug 22, 2026 # COT Positioning CFTC Commitment of Traders — Report: 2026-03-28 · Source: CFTC · Model 7/7 🥇 Gold🥈 Silver💎 Platinum⚡ Palladium COT Score \-13 NEUTRAL \-100 0 +100 Confidence: 40% ## Net Position Historical Percentile ◄ Short Neutral Long ► ## Position History (52 weeks) Managed Money Net Price Extremes ## Trader Breakdown OI: 178,500(+6,200) 🏦 Managed Money (Hedge Funds) Net Long +64,250 +8,300 this week Long Contracts: 82,450 56.4% of OI Short Contracts: 18,200 🏛️ Swap Dealers (Banks) Net Short \-55,900 \-4,100 this week Long Contracts: 12,500 45.3% of OI Short Contracts: 68,400 🏭 Producers / Merchants Net Short \-44,100 \-2,800 this week Long Contracts: 8,200 33.9% of OI Short Contracts: 52,300 📊 Other Reportables Net Long +12,400 +1,500 this week Long Contracts: 18,500 13.8% of OI Short Contracts: 6,100 👤 Non-Reportable (Small Traders) Net Long +23,350 Long Contracts: 32,350 23.2% of OI Short Contracts: 9,000 Net Position % OI 35.99% Weekly Change +8,300 Trend increasing shorts Historical Percentile 53rd ## Contrarian Signal No extreme positioning detected. Positioning within normal range (53rd percentile). ## Speculator Sentiment Longs 82% Shorts 18% Report Date 2026-03-28 Spread 22,100 Source: CFTC Commitment of Traders · Report: 2026-03-28 # Macro Analysis Economic forces driving precious metals · Source: FRED / WGC · Model 6/7 🥇 Gold🥈 Silver💎 Platinum⚡ Palladium Macro Score +53 BUY Confidence: 100% \-100 0 +100 KEY DRIVERS 1. real Rates ↑ Bullish (25%) 2. dollar Index ↑ Bullish (20%) 3. central Bank Buying ↑ Bullish (15%) 4. etf Flows ↑ Bullish (12%) 5. inflation ↑ Bullish (10%) 25% 20% 15% 12% 10% ### Real Rates (10Y TIPS) BUY 1.23% Score: +52 5Y: 1.45% BE 10Y: 2.89% Real rates declining — historically strong gold catalyst. 10Y TIPS fell 57bps from peak. ### Dollar Index (DXY) BUY 98.73 Score: +60 MA50: 100.15 MA200: 103.42 RSI: 35.6 DXY below both 50-day and 200-day MA. RSI oversold at 35.6. Weak dollar strongly supports gold. ### Inflation BUY 3.2% YoY Score: +39 PCE Core: 2.8% ⚠ Above 2% target Inflation persistent above 2% target. Gold benefits as inflation hedge. PCE Core at 2.8%. ### Monetary Policy BUY 4.25-4.50% Score: +48 Cut prob. 62% Next FOMC 2026-05-06 ECB / BOJ 2.5% / 0.5% Markets price 62% chance of rate cut at next meeting. Lower rates reduce opportunity cost of gold. ## ETF Flows BUY Gold ETFs +63.8t Silver ETFs +22.3t ETF AUM Holdings 7D 30D YTD GLD $89.5B 892.3t +12.4t +48.2t +245t IAU $32.1B 320.5t +3.8t +15.6t +78t SLV $14.2B 14,250t +5.1t +22.3t +95t PPLT $1.8B 28.4t +0.3t +1.2t +5.5t Strong ETF inflows — $63.8t gold inflows in 30 days. GLD AUM at $89.5B. Institutional conviction. ## Central Bank Buying BUY 2024 1,045t 2025 1,120t YTD 2026 198t Q Avg 265t pre-22: 125t TOP BUYERS (YTD) China (PBOC) 62t +12t India (RBI) 28t +5t Turkey (CBRT) 22t \-3t Poland (NBP) 18t +2t Czech Republic (CNB) 8t +1t Singapore (MAS) 6t +4t Central banks bought 1,120t in 2025 (vs 125t pre-2022 avg). De-dollarization accelerating. ## Yield Curve ⚠ INVERTED BUY 10Y-2Y: 42bps 10Y-3M: \-15bps Trend: steepening Actual Normal Inverted ## Correlations Silver vs Real Rates \-0.82 Strong Inverse Silver vs DXY \-0.68 Moderate Inverse Silver vs Inflation +0.45 Moderate Silver vs S&P 500 \-0.15 Weak Inverse Silver vs VIX +0.32 Weak ## Supply & Demand BUY Annual Supply 26,000t \+ 5,200t recycled Annual Demand 32,400t Deficit: 1,200t Jewelry 22% Investment 25% Central Banks 0% Technology 53% Supply deficit of 1200 tonnes. Mining supply flat. Source: FRED (Federal Reserve) · World Gold Council · As of Aug 22, 2026 ### Premium Feature Upgrade to Premium to unlock this feature and 7 AI models. Log In ### Geopolitical Impact on Silver Model 5/7 Current outlook Bullish (+409) Confidence 31% Risk Level 84/100 Key drivers • Russia Imposes Total PGM Export Ban to 'Unfriendly' Nations (8.8) • South African Mining Strike Gridlock (7.2) • Fed Implements Emergency Yield Curve Control (8.0) View Full Geopolitical Analysis → ### AURUS Index™ Prediction Engine ### LSTM Time Series Bullish $855.52 Model Accuracy: 70.3% Confidence: 90% ### Monte Carlo 10K Bullish $880.81 Model Accuracy: 65.9% Confidence: 51% ### GARCH Volatility Neutral $854.68 Model Accuracy: 68% Confidence: 76% ### Technical Analysis Bullish $868.17 Model Accuracy: 70.3% Confidence: 54% ### NLP Sentiment Bullish $867.32 Model Accuracy: 65.7% Confidence: 54% ### Macro/Fundamental Bullish $880.81 Model Accuracy: 71.7% Confidence: 52% ### COT Positioning Bullish $875.75 Model Accuracy: 63.8% Confidence: 76% Disclaimer: AURUS AI provides AI-generated market analysis for informational purposes only. 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