--- title: "Palladium Price & AI Forecast — XPD/USD | AURUS AI" description: "Palladium price analysis, XPD/USD live data, AI predictions and market intelligence. Track palladium with AURUS AI." lang: en json-ld: | [ { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Organization", "name": "AURUS AI", "url": "https://aurusinsight.com", "logo": "https://aurusinsight.com/logo.png", "description": "AI-powered precious metals intelligence platform with 7 prediction models", "sameAs": [ "https://t.me/AurusSignals" ] }, { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "FinancialProduct", "name": "Palladium Spot Price", "description": "Live Palladium Spot Price (XPD/USD) analysis with AI-powered predictions, technical indicators, and trading signals by Aurus Insight.", "url": "https://aurusinsight.com/en/palladium", "provider": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Aurus Insight", "url": "https://aurusinsight.com" }, "category": "Precious Metals" }, { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "FAQPage", "mainEntity": [ { "@type": "Question", "name": "How does the EV transition affect palladium prices?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "Battery electric vehicles do not require catalytic converters, eliminating palladium demand per unit. However, hybrid vehicles still use gasoline engines with palladium-based catalysts, and tighter China VI and Euro 7 emission standards increase palladium loading per vehicle. The net effect depends on the pace of full electrification versus hybrid adoption." } }, { "@type": "Question", "name": "Why is palladium so volatile compared to other precious metals?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "Palladium's volatility stems from its highly concentrated supply (Russia and South Africa produce 75%+ of global output), thin market liquidity compared to gold, and sensitivity to both automotive production cycles and geopolitical sanctions. The total annual palladium market value is roughly one-twentieth of gold's." } }, { "@type": "Question", "name": "What is the best way to track palladium supply risk?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "Key supply risk indicators include Norilsk Nickel production reports, Russian export policy changes, South African mining disruptions, NYMEX palladium futures open interest and COT net positioning, ETF holdings (particularly PALL), and the palladium lease rate." } } ] }, { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://aurusinsight.com/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Palladium Price & AI Forecast — XPD/USD | AURUS AI", "item": "https://aurusinsight.com/en/palladium" } ] } ] --- AURUS AI Precious Metals Intelligence [Dashboard ](/en/dashboard) Predictions Metals [Gold ](/en/gold)[Silver ](/en/silver)[Platinum ](/en/platinum)[ Palladium ](/en/palladium) [Track Record ](/en/track-record)[Academy ](/en/academy)[Pricing ](/en/pricing) [Sign In ](/en/auth) AURUS Index™ 67 BULLISH BUY Geo Risk 78 High ## Palladium Real-time precious metals intelligence $ USD 🇬🇧 EN Sign In ◆ XAU $58,610.40 ↑2.28% ◆ XAG $842.50 ↑6.17% ◆ XPT $17,483.92 ↑2.91% ◆ XPD $19,363.68 ↑4.30% ◆ BTC $67,264 ↓0.21% ◆ US10Y 4.31% ↓0.02% ◆ DXY $120.885 ↑0.50% ◆ XAU $58,610.40 ↑2.28% ◆ XAG $842.50 ↑6.17% ◆ XPT $17,483.92 ↑2.91% ◆ XPD $19,363.68 ↑4.30% ◆ BTC $67,264 ↓0.21% ◆ US10Y 4.31% ↓0.02% ◆ DXY $120.885 ↑0.50% # Palladium — Real-time precious metals intelligence Platinum ## Palladium XPD/USD $19,362.96 +$799.05 (+4.30%) 24h High $19,373.25 24h Low $18,705.21 Open $18,529.52 24h Change +4.30% 7d Change +29.37% Market Cap $6.6T ## Palladium: The Catalyst Metal In-Depth Analysis Candlestick 1D1W1M3M6M1Y5YMAX 📐 Indicators ⊕Compare [](https://www.tradingview.com/?utm_medium=lwc-link&utm_campaign=lwc-chart&utm_source=aurus-insight-hub.lovable.app/en/palladium "Charting by TradingView") RSI(14): 81.3 MACD: ↓ Bearish SMA(50): $1,815.91 BB: Width: 4.3% 24h Change +4.30% 7d Change +29.37% 30d Change +153.43% YTD +906.96% 24h High $19,373.25 24h Low $18,705.21 ## Palladium Market Ratios & Auto Metrics Palladium/Platinum Ratio 1.1x Substitution risk indicator Auto Catalyst Demand % 80.00% Gasoline vehicle dependency Recycling Supply % 30.00% Growing secondary source Global EV Penetration % 18.50% Long-term demand erosion risk ## Seasonal Patterns 10Y20Y50Y ### Average Monthly Return ### Current Month vs Historical Historical Avg \-1.5% Aug • 20Y average Current Month \-1.7% Aug 2026 vs Average \-0.2% Below historical average Palladium in Aug has averaged -1.5% over the past 20Y. ### Annual Performance Heatmap Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 +1 \-1.1 +0.3 +2.6 +0.1 \-0.3 +1.4 \-3.3 +3.2 \-0.8 +0.9 +0.6 2017 +3.3 \-1.8 \-0.4 +4.9 \-0.7 \-1.1 +0.7 \-1 +2.5 \-1.5 +0.2 +2.9 2018 +2.6 \-2.5 +1.8 +4.1 \-1.4 \-1.8 +3 \-1.7 +1.8 \-2.2 +2.5 +2.2 2019 +1.8 \-3.3 +1.1 +3.4 \-2.1 +0.5 +2.3 \-2.4 +1.1 0 +1.7 +1.4 2020 +1.1 \-1 +0.4 +2.7 +0.2 \-0.2 +1.6 \-3.1 +3.3 \-0.7 +1 +0.7 2021 +3.4 \-1.7 \-0.3 +5 \-0.5 \-0.9 +0.8 \-0.9 +2.6 \-1.4 +0.3 +3 2022 +2.7 \-2.4 \-1 +4.3 \-1.3 \-1.7 +3.1 \-1.6 +1.9 \-2.1 +2.6 +2.3 2023 +2 \-3.2 +1.2 +3.5 \-2 +0.6 +2.4 \-2.3 +1.2 +0.2 +1.9 +1.5 2024 +1.2 \-0.9 +0.5 +2.8 \-2.7 \-0.1 +1.7 \-3 +3.5 \-0.5 +1.1 +0.8 2025 +3.5 \-1.6 \-0.2 +2.1 \-0.4 \-0.8 +1 \-0.8 +2.7 \-1.3 +0.4 +3.1 Strong decline Flat Strong gain # Macro Analysis Economic forces driving precious metals · Source: FRED / WGC · Model 6/7 🥇 Gold🥈 Silver💎 Platinum⚡ Palladium Macro Score +34 BUY Confidence: 100% \-100 0 +100 KEY DRIVERS 1. real Rates ↑ Bullish (25%) 2. dollar Index ↑ Bullish (20%) 3. central Bank Buying ↑ Bullish (15%) 4. etf Flows ↑ Bullish (12%) 5. inflation ↑ Bullish (10%) 25% 20% 15% 12% 10% ### Real Rates (10Y TIPS) BUY 1.23% Score: +33 5Y: 1.45% BE 10Y: 2.89% Real rates declining — historically strong gold catalyst. 10Y TIPS fell 57bps from peak. ### Dollar Index (DXY) BUY 98.73 Score: +39 MA50: 100.15 MA200: 103.42 RSI: 35.6 DXY below both 50-day and 200-day MA. RSI oversold at 35.6. Weak dollar strongly supports gold. ### Inflation BUY 3.2% YoY Score: +24 PCE Core: 2.8% ⚠ Above 2% target Inflation persistent above 2% target. Gold benefits as inflation hedge. PCE Core at 2.8%. ### Monetary Policy BUY 4.25-4.50% Score: +30 Cut prob. 62% Next FOMC 2026-05-06 ECB / BOJ 2.5% / 0.5% Markets price 62% chance of rate cut at next meeting. Lower rates reduce opportunity cost of gold. ## ETF Flows BUY Gold ETFs +63.8t Silver ETFs +22.3t ETF AUM Holdings 7D 30D YTD GLD $89.5B 892.3t +12.4t +48.2t +245t IAU $32.1B 320.5t +3.8t +15.6t +78t SLV $14.2B 14,250t +5.1t +22.3t +95t PPLT $1.8B 28.4t +0.3t +1.2t +5.5t Strong ETF inflows — $63.8t gold inflows in 30 days. GLD AUM at $89.5B. Institutional conviction. ## Central Bank Buying BUY 2024 1,045t 2025 1,120t YTD 2026 198t Q Avg 265t pre-22: 125t TOP BUYERS (YTD) China (PBOC) 62t +12t India (RBI) 28t +5t Turkey (CBRT) 22t \-3t Poland (NBP) 18t +2t Czech Republic (CNB) 8t +1t Singapore (MAS) 6t +4t Central banks bought 1,120t in 2025 (vs 125t pre-2022 avg). De-dollarization accelerating. ## Yield Curve ⚠ INVERTED BUY 10Y-2Y: 42bps 10Y-3M: \-15bps Trend: steepening Actual Normal Inverted ## Correlations Palladium vs Real Rates \-0.82 Strong Inverse Palladium vs DXY \-0.68 Moderate Inverse Palladium vs Inflation +0.45 Moderate Palladium vs S&P 500 \-0.15 Weak Inverse Palladium vs VIX +0.32 Weak ## Supply & Demand BUY Annual Supply 210t \+ 80t recycled Annual Demand 310t Deficit: 20t Jewelry 28% Investment 12% Central Banks 0% Technology 60% Supply deficit of 20 tonnes. Mining supply flat. Source: FRED (Federal Reserve) · World Gold Council · As of Aug 22, 2026 ### Premium Feature Upgrade to Premium to unlock this feature and 7 AI models. Log In # COT Positioning CFTC Commitment of Traders — Report: 2026-03-28 · Source: CFTC · Model 7/7 🥇 Gold🥈 Silver💎 Platinum⚡ Palladium COT Score \-11 NEUTRAL \-100 0 +100 Confidence: 55% ## Net Position Historical Percentile ◄ Short Neutral Long ► ## Position History (52 weeks) Managed Money Net Price Extremes ## Trader Breakdown OI: 32,400(-2,800) 🏦 Managed Money (Hedge Funds) Net Short \-1,600 \-3,200 this week Long Contracts: 8,200 55.6% of OI Short Contracts: 9,800 🏛️ Swap Dealers (Banks) Net Short \-4,300 \-500 this week Long Contracts: 2,100 26.2% of OI Short Contracts: 6,400 🏭 Producers / Merchants Net Short \-2,400 +200 this week Long Contracts: 1,800 18.5% of OI Short Contracts: 4,200 📊 Other Reportables Net Long +1,900 +300 this week Long Contracts: 3,100 13.3% of OI Short Contracts: 1,200 👤 Non-Reportable (Small Traders) Net Long +2,400 Long Contracts: 5,800 28.4% of OI Short Contracts: 3,400 Net Position % OI \-4.94% Weekly Change \-3,200 Trend neutral Historical Percentile 28th ## Contrarian Signal No extreme positioning detected. Positioning within normal range (28th percentile). ## Speculator Sentiment Longs 46% Shorts 54% Report Date 2026-03-28 Spread 1,800 Source: CFTC Commitment of Traders · Report: 2026-03-28 ### Geopolitical Impact on Palladium Model 5/7 Current outlook Bullish (+146) Confidence 27% Risk Level 82/100 Key drivers • Escalation of South China Sea Blockade and US-China Tech Sanctions (8.5) • Middle East Regional Conflict Spreading to Hormuz Shipping Lanes (9.2) • BRICS+ Central Banks Announce Unified Digital Settlement System (8.8) View Full Geopolitical Analysis → ## GARCH Volatility Model Model 3/7 0ms Volatility Regime NORMAL Calm 3% Normal 43% Turbulent 53% Crisis 0% Regime changed from TURBULENT → NORMAL (3d ago) Persistence: 0.98 Half-Life: 44.3 days Current: 17% Long-run: 15.1% ### Volatility History & Forecast ### Volatility Term Structure ### Expected Daily Range +2σ $19,788.79 +1σ $19,581.02 Current $19,373.25 \-1σ $19,165.48 \-2σ $18,957.71 68% chance within $19,165.48 - $19,581.02 95% chance within $18,957.71 - $19,788.79 Volatility model · Based on 252 trading days · As of Aug 22, 2026 ## Technical Analysis 1D1W1M3M6M1Y \-10 Neutral Confidence: 60% ▲ 5 Buy ● 4 Neutral ▼ 8 Sell Support $1916.03 Pivot Point $1925.74 Resistance $1932.56 ### Category Weights Moving Averages 30% \-68 Momentum 30% +38 Bands & Channels 15% +15 Volume 10% \-38 Patterns Detected 15% +0 #### Analysis Summary Technical analysis is mixed. Indicators are divided, suggesting caution. Composite score: -10/100, confidence: 60%. ▲ Top Bullish: RSI(14), CCI(20), Stochastic(14,3) ▼ Top Bearish: MA Crossovers, ADX(14), Ichimoku Cloud Score: \-10 /100 Confidence: 60% 17 indicators analyzed ### No Signal Generated Conditions not met to generate a reliable trading signal ✗ Score must be above +40 or below -40 |-10| = 10 ≥ 40 ✓ Confidence must be above 50% 60% ≥ 50% ✗ Indicator alignment must be above 60% 47% (8/17) ≥ 60% Indicator Value Signal Score MA Crossovers Below all MAs Strong Sell \-75 ADX(14) 39.4 (Strong) Strong Sell \-70 Parabolic SAR $1947.20 Strong Sell \-60 Ichimoku Cloud Below Cloud Strong Sell \-65 RSI(14) 16.8 Strong Buy +80 MACD(12,26,9) \-8.12 Sell \-40 Stochastic(14,3) %K: 4.8 / %D: 4.1 Strong Buy +70 Williams %R(14) \-90.5 Buy +50 CCI(20) \-203 Strong Buy +80 ROC(12) \-1.57% Neutral \-13 Bollinger Bands %B: -13.2% Strong Buy +60 ATR(14) $5.91 (0.31%) Neutral +0 Keltner Squeeze No Squeeze Neutral +0 HV(20) 2.3% Neutral +0 OBV Trend 513.2K Sell \-40 Volume Ratio 1.65x Sell \-40 A/D Line \-316.0K Sell \-35 #### Technical Analysis — Timeline 20 Neutral \-10 3M Aug 19, 10:19 AM Confidence: 60% Pivot Point: $1926.74 Neutral \-10 3M Aug 19, 10:19 AM Confidence: 60% Pivot Point: $17118.88 Neutral \-10 3M Aug 15, 11:32 AM Confidence: 60% Pivot Point: $1926.62 Neutral \-10 3M Aug 8, 10:32 AM Confidence: 60% Pivot Point: $1925.95 Neutral \-10 3M Aug 1, 09:32 AM Confidence: 60% Pivot Point: $1926.89 Neutral \-10 3M Jul 25, 08:33 AM Confidence: 60% Pivot Point: $1926.33 Neutral \-10 3M Jul 25, 07:03 AM Confidence: 60% Pivot Point: $1925.73 Neutral \-10 3M Jul 25, 07:03 AM Confidence: 60% Pivot Point: $8083.39 Neutral \-10 3M Jul 18, 07:32 AM Confidence: 60% Pivot Point: $1925.21 Neutral \-10 3M Jul 11, 06:32 AM Confidence: 60% Pivot Point: $1926.66 Neutral \-10 3M Jul 7, 10:06 AM Confidence: 60% Pivot Point: $1925.98 Neutral \-10 3M Jul 7, 10:06 AM Confidence: 60% Pivot Point: $4783.04 Neutral \-10 3M Jul 7, 09:57 AM Confidence: 60% Pivot Point: $1925.53 Neutral \-10 3M Jul 7, 09:57 AM Confidence: 60% Pivot Point: $4776.15 Neutral \-10 3M Jul 4, 05:32 AM Confidence: 60% Pivot Point: $1925.85 Neutral \-10 3M Jun 27, 04:31 AM Confidence: 60% Pivot Point: $1925.23 Neutral \-10 3M Jun 20, 03:32 AM Confidence: 60% Pivot Point: $1925.97 Neutral \-10 3M Jun 14, 05:20 PM Confidence: 60% Pivot Point: $1998.04 Neutral \-10 3M Jun 13, 02:32 AM Confidence: 60% Pivot Point: $2258.86 Neutral \-10 3M Jun 6, 01:32 AM Confidence: 60% Pivot Point: $1926.44 Based on synthetic daily closing prices · Indicators as of Aug 22, 2026 ## Monte Carlo Simulation Model 2/7 10,000 paths 7D14D30D60D90D Strong Buy Score: +70 | Confidence: 81% 30D horizon • Jump Diffusion (Merton) • Computed in 144ms Probability Up 85.7% Probability Down 14.3% Expected Return +4% Value at Risk (95%) $40.15 Mean $1999.81 Median $1997.80 Std Dev $72.90 Skewness 0.140 Kurtosis 0.019 Expected Shortfall $67.41 Computed in 144ms ### Prediction Cone Hide Trajectories ### Price Distribution ### Percentiles Percentile Price Return Prob P5(Bear Case) $1882.71 \-2.1% 5% P10 $1908.10 \-0.8% 10% P25 $1949.90 +1.4% 25% P50(Base Case) $1997.80 +3.9% 50% P75 $2048.01 +6.5% 75% P90 $2094.75 +8.9% 90% P95(Bull Case) $2122.52 +10.4% 95% Probability Calculator Probability of reaching $ (+5.0%) 38.7% 10,000 probabilistic scenarios Quick targets: $1,827 99% $1,865 97% $1,981 59% $2,019 39% $2,115 6% $2,211 0% Simulation Settings 10,000 simulated paths · Jump Diffusion model · As of Aug 22, 2026 ### AURUS Index™ Prediction Engine ### LSTM Time Series Bullish $19,832.39 Model Accuracy: 73% Confidence: 86% ### Monte Carlo 10K Bullish $20,239.11 Model Accuracy: 67.4% Confidence: 76% ### GARCH Volatility Bullish $20,026.07 Model Accuracy: 64.8% Confidence: 67% ### Technical Analysis Bullish $19,871.13 Model Accuracy: 69.3% Confidence: 51% ### NLP Sentiment Bullish $19,754.92 Model Accuracy: 66.8% Confidence: 72% ### Macro/Fundamental Bullish $20,219.74 Model Accuracy: 70.5% Confidence: 88% ### COT Positioning Bullish $20,200.38 Model Accuracy: 66.4% Confidence: 76% Disclaimer: AURUS AI provides AI-generated market analysis for informational purposes only. 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