---
title: "Macro Analysis — Gold Drivers & Correlations | AURUS AI"
description: "Macro economic analysis for precious metals. Real rates, DXY, inflation, ETF flows, central bank buying and yield curve impact on gold."
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AURUS AI 

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Metals 

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AURUS Index™

67 

BULLISH

BUY 

Geo Risk

74 

High

## Macro Analysis

Economic forces driving precious metals

$ USD 

🇬🇧 EN 

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◆ XAU $58,589.57 ↑2.26% ◆ XAG $842.74 ↑6.13% ◆ XPT $17,502.58 ↑3.00% ◆ XPD $19,357.47 ↑4.27% ◆ BTC $67,264 ↓0.21% ◆ US10Y 4.31% ↓0.02% ◆ DXY $120.885 ↑0.50% ◆ XAU $58,589.57 ↑2.26% ◆ XAG $842.74 ↑6.13% ◆ XPT $17,502.58 ↑3.00% ◆ XPD $19,357.47 ↑4.27% ◆ BTC $67,264 ↓0.21% ◆ US10Y 4.31% ↓0.02% ◆ DXY $120.885 ↑0.50% 

# Macro Analysis

Economic forces driving precious metals · Source: FRED / WGC · Model 6/7

🥇 Gold🥈 Silver💎 Platinum⚡ Palladium

Macro Score

+70 BUY 

Confidence: 78%

\-100 0 +100 

KEY DRIVERS

1. real Rates ↑ Bullish (25%) 

2. dollar Index ↑ Bullish (20%) 

3. central Bank Buying ↑ Bullish (15%) 

4. etf Flows ↑ Bullish (12%) 

5. inflation ↑ Bullish (10%) 

25% 

20% 

15% 

12% 

10% 

### Real Rates (10Y TIPS)

BUY 

1.23% 

Score: +65

5Y: 1.45% BE 10Y: 2.89% 

Real rates declining — historically strong gold catalyst. 10Y TIPS fell 57bps from peak.

### Dollar Index (DXY)

BUY 

98.73

Score: +75

MA50: 100.15 MA200: 103.42 RSI: 35.6 

DXY below both 50-day and 200-day MA. RSI oversold at 35.6. Weak dollar strongly supports gold.

### Inflation

BUY 

3.2% YoY 

Score: +50

PCE Core: 2.8% ⚠ Above 2% target 

Inflation persistent above 2% target. Gold benefits as inflation hedge. PCE Core at 2.8%.

### Monetary Policy

BUY 

4.25-4.50%

Score: +60

Cut prob. 62% 

Next FOMC 2026-05-06 

ECB / BOJ 2.5% / 0.5% 

Markets price 62% chance of rate cut at next meeting. Lower rates reduce opportunity cost of gold.

## ETF Flows

BUY 

Gold ETFs +63.8t 

Silver ETFs +22.3t 

ETF

AUM

Holdings

7D

30D

YTD

GLD

$89.5B

892.3t

+12.4t

+48.2t

+245t

IAU

$32.1B

320.5t

+3.8t

+15.6t

+78t

SLV

$14.2B

14,250t

+5.1t

+22.3t

+95t

PPLT

$1.8B

28.4t

+0.3t

+1.2t

+5.5t

Strong ETF inflows — $63.8t gold inflows in 30 days. GLD AUM at $89.5B. Institutional conviction.

## Central Bank Buying

BUY 

2024

1,045t

2025

1,120t

YTD 2026

198t

Q Avg

265t

pre-22: 125t

TOP BUYERS (YTD)

China (PBOC) 

62t +12t 

India (RBI) 

28t +5t 

Turkey (CBRT) 

22t \-3t 

Poland (NBP) 

18t +2t 

Czech Republic (CNB) 

8t +1t 

Singapore (MAS) 

6t +4t 

Central banks bought 1,120t in 2025 (vs 125t pre-2022 avg). De-dollarization accelerating.

## Yield Curve

⚠ INVERTED BUY 

10Y-2Y: 42bps 10Y-3M: \-15bps Trend: steepening 

Actual  Normal  Inverted 

## Correlations

Gold vs Real Rates 

\-0.82 Strong Inverse 

Gold vs DXY 

\-0.68 Moderate Inverse 

Gold vs Inflation 

+0.45 Moderate 

Gold vs S&P 500 

\-0.15 Weak Inverse 

Gold vs VIX 

+0.32 Weak 

## Supply & Demand

BUY 

Annual Supply

3,644t

\+ 1,240t recycled

Annual Demand

5,320t

Deficit: 436t

Jewelry 38% 

Investment 29% 

Central Banks 22% 

Technology 11% 

Supply deficit of 436 tonnes. Mining supply flat.

Source: FRED (Federal Reserve) · World Gold Council · As of Aug 22, 2026

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AURUS AI provides AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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